中国对外贸易与航空运输的关系测度研究  

Study on measurement of relationship between China's foreign trade and air transport growth

作　　者：刘光才[1,2] 胡婧[2] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理学院,天津300072 [2]中国民航大学经济与管理学院,天津300300

出　　处：《中国民航大学学报》2015年第2期36-40,共5页Journal of Civil Aviation University of China

基　　金：国家软科学计划项目(2006GXQ3B202);国家司法部研究课题(05SFB2033)

摘　　要：中国对外贸易长期快速持续增长,在国际市场上的比重逐年增加,恰值中国民航业的发展正处于迅猛成长期。对外贸易的发展对航空运输有直接或间接的重要影响,货物贸易的增长对航空货运需求增加,国际交流频繁也促进了航空客运的发展。基于国际贸易的动态效应理论,通过选取1982—2011年的时间序列数据,对进出口贸易总额与航空运输总周转量间的关系进行格兰杰因果检验,并构建了对外贸易与航空运输增长之间的有限分布滞后模型。分析结果表明:对外贸易与航空运输增长之间存在因果关系,其中对外贸易对航空运输增长的贡献度为0.28。China＇ s foreign trade has grown fast and become a bigger part of international market. During this fast-growing period, the development of foreign trade has influenced air transportation directly and indirectly, the growth of commodity trade has more needs for air-freight, and also international communication promotes the development of air passenger transport. Based on the dynamic effect theory of international trade and 1982-2011 years＇ data, the Granger causality test is used between the ＇total volume of imports and exports＇and ＇air transportation turnover volume ＇. Then a finite distributed lag model of foreign trade and air transportation growth is developed. The results reveal that there is a causal relationship between foreign trade and air transportation, and the contri- bution value is 0.28.

关 键 词：对外贸易 航空运输 格兰杰因果检验 贡献度 

分 类 号：F560[经济管理—产业经济] V19[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]