政府干预能力差异与经济周期协同--基于中国及其主要贸易伙伴的实证研究  

Government Intervention Ability Difference and Business Cycle Co-movement:An Empirical Study Based on China and Its Major Trade Partners

作　　者：刘德学[1] 陈定[1] 

机构地区：[1]暨南大经济学院,510632

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2015年第5期31-40,共10页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目“后危机时代全球分工发展趋势及其对我国经济发展的影响”(09AZD015);广东省哲学社会科学“十二五”规划项目;“珠三角城市群分工与协调发展模式研究”(GD13CYJ09)

摘　　要：本文运用1997-2011年中国与主要贸易伙伴的面板数据,基于联立方程模型实证分析政府干预能力差异对双边经济周期协同的影响及其作用路径。结果表明:政府干预能力差异会直接和通过国际传导渠道间接对双边经济周期协同构成影响,两条途径作用的方向均显著为负,但大小明显不同;由于互补品/替代品贸易、垂直型/水平型投资和产业结构之间相互交织的内生关系以及政府干预能力差异对不同传导渠道的影响方向和大小不尽一致,导致间接途径的作用机制较为复杂,其最终效应为负是贸易和产业结构渠道负效应与投资渠道正效应综合作用的结果;政府干预能力差异对不同渠道的影响程度与其通过不同渠道对经济周期协同的影响间并不具有一致性,"越易干预越有效"可能是一种错觉。Applying a simultaneous equations model, this paper empirically investi- gates the effect and the influencing pathway of government intervention ability differ- ence on business cycle co-movement by using data of China and its major trade partners from 1997 to 2011. The results indicate that the difference in government intervention abilities affect bilateral business cycle co-movement significantly through direct and indi- rect pathways and both ways of effects are negative, but the degrees of effect differ mark- edly. The intertwined endogenous relations among complementary/alternative trade, ver- tical/horizontal investment and industrial structure as well as the inconsistent effects both in direction and degree of the difference in government intervention ability on different conduction channels make the indirect mechanism quite complex, contributing to a final negative effect resulting from the combined result of the negative effect of trade and in- dustry structure and the positive influence of investment. The effects of government inter- vention ability difference on the conduction channels themselves are not consistent with their effects on the business cycle co-movement through the conduction channels, concluding that ＂the easier the intervention, the more effective＂ might be a misconception.

关 键 词：政府干预能力差异 经济周期协同 传导渠道 联立方程模型 

分 类 号：F123.16[经济管理—世界经济]