长江口潮位非一致性及对水文设计的影响研究  

Nonstationarity of Tidal Level and Its Impacts on Hydrologic Design in Yangtze River Estuary

作　　者：张悦[1] 李国芳[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210098

出　　处：《长江科学院院报》2015年第5期21-27,36,共8页Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51109053;51190091)

摘　　要：采用Mann-Kendall检验和Spearman秩次相关检验等非参数统计检验方法分析了1950—2009年长江镇江和江阴站潮位的变化趋势。分析结果表明:镇江站年最高、最低潮位均存在显著的抬升趋势,年平均潮位也呈现不明显的上升趋势;江阴站除年最高潮位存在明显抬升外,年平均和年最低潮位的变化趋势均不显著。利用滑动t检验、滑动秩和检验以及Pettitt检验法对潮位时间序列进行突变检测,3种突变检测结果基本一致:镇江站年最高和年平均潮位均在1979年发生最强突变,年最低潮位在1987年发生变异;江阴站年最高潮位亦在1979年发生突变,但年平均和年最低潮位均未发生显著变异。以上述2站的年最高潮位序列为例,初步分析了潮位非一致变化的原因,潮位的这种非一致变化增加了水文频率分析的难度,并降低了水文设计值的防洪标准。According to the data of annual maximum and minimum tidal levels as well as annual mean tidal levels of Yangtze River recorded in Zhenjiang and Jiangyin Stations,the trends of the three tidal level time series from 1 950 to 2009 were detected by using two non-parametric statistical methods （Mann-Kendall test and Spearman rank cor-relation test）,and the jumps of the above three tidal level time series were examined with three test methods name-ly moving t-test,moving rank sum test and Pettitt test.All the results were of high coincidence,showing that there were significant rising trends in both annual maximum and minimum tidal levels,while such rising trend in annual mean tidal levels was insignificant at Zhenjiang Station.For Jiangyin Station,only the annual maximum tidal level had obvious rising trend,while the trends of the annual mean and minimum tidal level were not significant.Results of the three tests for jumps showed that the most significant abrupt changes in annual maximum and annual mean tidal level time series occurred mostly around 1 979 and an abrupt change in annual minimum tidal level took place in 1 987 at Zhenjiang Station.A significant abrupt change in annual maximum tidal level at Jiangyin Station also oc-curred in around 1 979,but there were no significant variation detected in its annual mean and minimum tidal level. With annual maximum tidal level as an example,the causes of tidal level rise were analyzed.This nonstationarity of tidal level might generate negative impacts on hydrologic design,including the increase in difficulty of hydrologic frequency analysis and the decrease in flood control standards of hydrologic design values.

关 键 词：年最高潮位 年最低潮位 年平均潮位 非一致性 水文设计 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]