考虑关联性特征匹配的城市生命线风险应对方案选择方法  

A Method for Selecting Risk Response Plan of Urban Lifeline Considering Interdependent Feature Matching

作　　者：索玮岚[1] 陈锐[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100190

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2015年第2期140-145,共6页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71301159);中国博士后科学基金面上资助项目(20110490608);国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2012BAK27B02);中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所重大研究任务B类专项(Y201161Z04)

摘　　要：针对城市生命线风险应对方案选择问题涉及的特征指标关联性和信息形式多样性,本文提出了一种考虑关联性特征匹配的混合型决策方法。首先,给出实际域、设定域和公共域的定义,并将具有区间数、语言短语等信息形式的风险事件特征指标值和应对方案特征指标值分别映射为实际域和设定域,进而通过两者的面积交织确定公共域;然后,将公理设计方法扩展到混合型决策环境,计算出反映风险事件与应对方案在各个特征指标下匹配程度的信息量,并进行应对方案的初筛;进一步地,采用2-additive Choquet积分算子将特征指标的权重、关联系数和初筛后剩余应对方案的信息量集结为反映风险事件与应对方案综合匹配程度的信息总量,并据此选择最优的应对方案。最后,通过算例分析验证了所提方法的有效性和可行性。研究结果表明,该方法能够为相关监管部门快速响应城市生命线风险、最大程度地降低风险损失和危害提供有效的决策支持。With regard to the interdependence on feature criteria and variety on information formats mentioned in the problem on selecting risk response plan of urban lifeline,a hybrid decision making method considering interdependent feature matching is proposed. Firstly,definitions on practical region,specialized region and common region are given. Then,feature criterion values on a risk event and corresponding response plan in the formats of interval values and linguistic terms are mapped into the practical region and specialized region,respectively. The common region is also determined according to the overlap between two regions motioned above. Next,axiom design method is extended to a hybrid decision making environment. Based on the extended method,the information contents that represent the matching degrees between risk event and response plans under each feature criterion can be computed,and the preliminary screening of response plans can be conducted. Furthermore,through aggregating weight,interdependent coefficient and information content of the rest response plans under each feature criterion by 2-additive Choquet integral operator,the overall information contents that represent the comprehensive matching degrees between risk event and response plans are obtained to select the optimal risk response plan.Finally,an illustrative example is used to show the validity and feasibility of the proposed method. Research results show that the proposed method can provide a effective decision support for relevant regulatory authorities to respond to urban lifeline risk as soon as possible and reduce risk loss and damage at a maximum extent.

关 键 词：管理科学 风险应对方案选择 混合型决策方法 城市生命线 关联性特征匹配 

分 类 号：C931[经济管理—管理学] F294