城乡暴雨灾害的非规则结构化预测技术探讨  

Discussion of the Irregular Structured Prediction Technique for Urban-rural Rainstorm Disaster

作　　者：游娜[1] 陈刚毅[1] 

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程学院,四川成都610225

出　　处：《气象与减灾研究》2015年第1期59-65,共7页Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research

基　　金：四川省气象灾害预测预警与应急管理研究中心开放基金项目(编号:2014zhyj001)

摘　　要：根据"时间不占物质维"的观点和非规则复杂信息是变化信息的相空间转换方法,采用自动气象站分钟级的自动观测信息,结合成都地区暴雨实例,配合V-3θ结构图的区域性分析,对城市暴雨落时、落区进行了细化预测。复杂信息以结构方式揭示了物质演化的转折性变化或事件的突发性,且该方法的简洁性体现在该预测方法的可应用性。According to the point of view “Time does not account for the physical dimension” and the method of “The phase space conversion”（the irregular and complex information is the variable information）, the minute-class information gathered from automatic weather observation was used to finely forecast the temporal and spatial distribution of the rainfall storm by combining the rainstorm examples in Chengdu and the regional analysis of the V-3θstructure diagram. Complex information reveals the turning change of the events in the evolution of material changes in a structured way. The briefness of this method is revealed in the applicability of forecasting. As “the scientific concept of development”, it also involves the strategies, measures of “urban-rural integration”.

关 键 词：暴雨 精细化预测 非规则信息 风廓线 

分 类 号：P427[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]