基于模糊网络的项目工期计算及优化  

Project Duration Calculation and Optimization Based on Fuzzy Network

作　　者：梁斌[1] 白思俊[1] 郭云涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学管理学院,陕西西安710129

出　　处：《管理工程学报》2015年第2期217-222,共6页Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71172123);航空科学基金资助项目(2012ZG53083);陕西省软科学资助项目(2012KRM85)

摘　　要：提出了基于不确定的活动持续时间和上下游活动间的不确定信息传递关系的模糊网络的项目进度计划问题。把不确定的活动持续时间看作模糊数,用模糊时间因子表示上下游活动间的不确定信息传递关系。通过模糊设计结构矩阵表达了模糊网络,设计了模糊网络的项目工期计算模型,引入项目按要求工期完工概率和活动边际工期贡献率来解决模糊网络的关键路线和项目的工期优化,并通过示例验证了方法的有效性。In the past years, CPM and PERT have been demonstrated to be important tools for project planning and have been widely used in project management. In CPM, the activity duration is determined and the information transfer relationship between the upstream and downstream activities can＇t be represented. The PERT network describes the activity duration through three time parameters which obey the beta distribution, but can＇t express the information transfer between activities. In fact, projects are always in complex and changing environment, the upstream and downstream activities is overlap, the activity duration and the information transfer relationship are uncertain. Therefore, research on project schedule plan based on fuzzy network in which the activity duration is uncertain and the information transfer relationship between the upstream and downstream activities is also uncertain has practical significance. Project schedule plan based on fuzzy network can achieve project duration reasonable optimization and improve the utilization of resources. This paper describes the project schedule plan problem with the fuzzy design structure matrix, taking into account not only the uncertain activity duration but also the uncertain information transfer relationship between the upstream and downstream activities. Compared with the traditional CPM / PERT network, project schedule plan based on fuzzy design structure matrix has more expansion form of expression and larger information of project plan. It is more in line with project reality comparing with the research considering single random factor only, and it can also combine project duration calculation and resource-duration optimization effectively in the design of algorithm. Fuzzy design structure matrix is used to describe fuzzy project network. The paper develops the model of calculating project duration through fuzzy operation in fuzzy network environment. The probability of project completion as required duration（MCR） and the marginal duration contribution ra

关 键 词：项目进度计划 模糊网络 项目按要求工期完工概率 活动边际工期贡献率 

分 类 号：C931.1[经济管理—管理学]