中冰自贸区对中国水产品进口贸易的影响  

Influence of China-Iceland FTA on Chinese aquatic products import

作　　者：蔺思远[1] 高金田[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学经济学院,山东青岛266100

出　　处：《中国渔业经济》2015年第2期36-43,共8页Chinese Fisheries Economics

摘　　要：近年来中冰双边贸易额持续增长,水产品是中国从冰岛进口的主要产品。论文通过引力模型面板数据,分析得出运输成本并不构成中国水产品进口贸易的阻碍因素,影响中国水产品进口贸易的因素有:中国的GDP,进口关税,以及进口来源国是否为渔业现代化国家;接着运用二次指数平滑法预测得出中冰自贸区协议生效后,中国从冰岛进口的水产品将会明显增加;最后利用贸易巴拉萨模型分析得出中冰建立自由贸易区将会产生贸易转移效应,中国从其他贸易伙伴国家进口的水产品将会部分转移至冰岛。In recent years, bilateral trade volume between China and Iceland keeps increasing. Among China＇s import products from Iceland aquatic products take the largest share. In this paper, factors affecting China＇s import of aquatic products are studied by using gravity model, China＇s GDP, Custom duty, fishery modernization are believed to be three major affecting factors, yet transportation cost is not a barrier factor. Besides, china＇s import of aquatic products from Iceland is forecasted by using Double Exponential Smoothing method. According to the results the establishment of China-Iceland FTA will boost china＇s import of aquatic products from Iceland and furthermore cause a trade diversion effect.

关 键 词：中冰自贸区 水产品进口贸易 引力模型 影响 

分 类 号：F326.406[经济管理—产业经济]