我国不同类型蔬菜价格波动分解与贡献分析  

Price Decomposition and Contribution to Price Fluctuation of Different Vegetables in China

作　　者：沈辰[1] 张玉梅[1] 李志强[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《中国蔬菜》2015年第5期52-57,共6页China Vegetables

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAH20B04)

摘　　要：为了细致地考察我国不同种类蔬菜价格波动特征与规律,总结不同蔬菜价格波动的异同与变化,本文运用季节分解和H-P滤波法,将我国四大类28种蔬菜批发价格分解为趋势、周期、季节、随机4种波动类型。分析发现:近年来季节波动对蔬菜价格的波动贡献逐渐减弱;随机波动对瓜果类、叶菜类蔬菜价格的波动贡献不断加强。各波动类型对不同蔬菜价格的影响差异较大,季节波动对瓜果类蔬菜价格影响强于其他蔬菜;叶菜类蔬菜价格波动更容易受随机因素影响;周期波动对姜蒜类价格波动贡献明显。Using seasonal decomposition and HP filter method, this paper decomposed the wholesale prices of 28 vegetables into trend fluctuation, cyclical fluctuation, seasonal fluctuation and random fluctuation for more details of the characters and laws for different vegetables, and summarized the differences between different vegetables priee fluctuation and changes. The results indicated that in recent years the impact of seasonal fluctuation to vegetables price fluctuation became gradually weaken, while the impact of random fluctuation to fruit and leafy vegetables was strengthened constantly. There were big differences in the influences brought by different fluctuation types on vegetable prices. Fruit vegetable priee was more significantly affected by seasonal fluctuation. While leafy vegetable price was more easily affected by random fluctuation. Cyclical fluctuation had remarkable impaeted to ginger and garlie price fluctuation.

关 键 词：蔬菜 价格 H-P滤波法 季节波动 随机波动 趋势波动 周期波动 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]