Equipment Maintenance Material Demand Forecasting Based on Gray-Markov Model  

作　　者：毕坤鹏 张宏运 晏国辉 唐娜 

机构地区：[1]Chemical Defense Equipment Department,Institute of NBC Defense of PLA [2]Biological and Chemical Defense Department,Institute of NBC Defense of PLA

出　　处：《Journal of Donghua University(English Edition)》2014年第6期824-826,838,共4页东华大学学报（英文版）

基　　金：Chemical Defense Equipment Maintenance Material Support Methods,Universal Equipment Support Department[2012]No.80,China

摘　　要：Maintenance material reserves must keep an appropriate scale,in order to meet the possible demand of support objectives.According to the sequence of maintenance material consumption,this paper establishes a Gray-Markov forecasting model by combining Gray system theory and Markov model. Few data are needed in the proposed Gray-Markov forecasting model which has high prediction precision by involving small parameters. The performance of Gray-Markov forecasting model was demonstrated using practical application and the model was proved to be a valid and accurate forecasting method. This Gray-Markov forecasting model can provide reference for making material demand plan and determining maintenance material reserves.Maintenance material reserves must keep an appropriate scale,in order to meet the possible demand of support objectives.According to the sequence of maintenance material consumption,this paper establishes a Gray-Markov forecasting model by combining Gray system theory and Markov model. Few data are needed in the proposed Gray-Markov forecasting model which has high prediction precision by involving small parameters. The performance of Gray-Markov forecasting model was demonstrated using practical application and the model was proved to be a valid and accurate forecasting method. This Gray-Markov forecasting model can provide reference for making material demand plan and determining maintenance material reserves.

关 键 词：maintenance material gray-Markov demand forecasting material reserves 

分 类 号：E23[军事—军事理论]