流域降水的面雨量计算与评估——以澜沧江上游流域强降水个例分析为例  

Calculation and Evaluation of Area Precipitation for River Basin --A case of intense rainfall over upstream of Lancang River Basin

作　　者：段玮[1] 樊风[1] 杨家康[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南省气象科学研究所,云南昆明650034

出　　处：《环境科学前沿（中英文版）》2014年第4期136-141,共6页Frontier of Environmental Science

基　　金：受国家自然科学基金（41205067）与国家自然科学基金.云南联合项目（u1133603）共同资助.

摘　　要：面雨量是水文气象中的重要参量。面雨量计算有多种方法，其计算与应用应结合流域特点优选，但目前西南诸河相关研究不足。本文利用以澜沦江上游流域1998年8月29日和2010年8月4日强降水个例为基础，结合降水分布形态分析和交叉验证分析，对比了多种面雨量计算方法异同，研究结果可为西南诸河具有共性的怒江、澜沧江、金沙江开展面雨量计算业务及研究提供参考。研究显示：泰森多边形法受限于高原雨量站点分布较少，局限性明显。各种等雨量线法在降水分布形态上总体上是一致的，但是克里金插值法克服了反距离权重（Cressman）法“牛眼”分布，最小曲面法降水中心过度平滑和改进的谢别德法插值泛化等缺点，使得降水分布形态更为合理。交叉统计验证也显示克里金法更精确。Area precipitation is a very important parameter in hydrometeorology. There are several methods to calculate area precipitation. Its Calculation and application should be combined with the characteristics of river basin. It is lack of relevant researches in the Southwest Rivers. In this paper, based on two intense precipitation case （1998-08-29 and 2010-08-04）, several methods to calculate area precipitation are analyzed. The results show： Tyson polygon method has obvious limitations for area have few observation stations. The precipitation distribution pattern is consistent with several methods. However, the distribution patterns from Kriging method are more reasonable. Kriging method overcomes some of shortcomings, such as 0 Law ＂bull＇s-eye＂ distribution from inverse distance （Cressman） method, excessive smoothing from Minimum Curvature method and interpolation generalization from Modified Shepard＇s Method. By cross-validation statistics, the results show that Kriging method is more accurate

关 键 词：面雨量 澜沧江上游 强降水 克里金法 

分 类 号：X[环境科学与工程]