2014年国内外食糖市场回顾与2015年展望  

Domestic and Foreign Sugar Markets in 2014 and Their Prospects for 2015

作　　者：刘晓雪[1] 张宸[1] 宋杰[1] 郑传芳[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京工商大学,北京100048 [2]福建农林大学,福建福州350002

出　　处：《农业展望》2015年第4期14-18,共5页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：农业部;财政部现代农业(甘蔗)产业技术体系建设专项资金(CARS-20-11B);教育部人文社科青年基金项目(13YJC790097);国际农业研究体系"糖料市场;贸易及产业政策研究"

摘　　要：2014年中国生产食糖1 248.26万t,销售食糖1 082.98万t。2014年中国食糖总产量减少,但主产区日益集中;销糖量和销糖率小幅下降;配额外食糖纳入自动进口许可管理,进口量为348.58万t,同比明显减少;对厄尔尼诺气候的预期影响贯穿全年,糖价波动明显。展望后市,短期内,过剩库存仍使国内外糖价承压;随着库存压力缓解,2015/16榨季国际糖市供给或由剩转缺,2014/15榨季国内也将进入减产周期,长期价格存在上涨动力。后期需继续关注食糖主产国的天气变化、食糖用蔗比例、进出口补贴政策变化、汇率变化以及宏观经济动态等焦点因素。In 2014, China＇s total production of sugar suffered a decrease, reaching 12.482 6 million tons, and the sales volume was 10.829 8 million tons with a slight decline in both sales volume and rate. However, the sugar crop began to plant in intensive districts. Owing to the automatic import licensing administration of non-quota sugar, the imports of sugar dropped significantly to 3 485 800 tons. The impact of El Nino climate on sugar lasted the whole year with sugar price fluctuating significantly. Looking ahead, both domestic and foreign sugar prices will incline to fall for the excess inventory in the short term, while in the long term, domestic sugar price is likely to increase, for the surplus supply of international sugar may reverse in 2015/16 crushing season with the release of sugar storage press, and domestic production will enter a reduction cycle in 2014/15 crushing season. Afterwards, more attentions should be paid to the weather changes, the cane sugar proportion, the import and export subsidy policies, exchange rate changes and other macroeconomic factors of main sugar producing countries.

关 键 词：食糖 市场 政策 国内外 供需 价格 销糖量 展望 

分 类 号：F313.7[经济管理—产业经济]