China’s Urbanization Process and Outlook~  

中国城镇化的进程与前景展望

作　　者：魏后凯[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所

出　　处：《China Economist》2015年第2期102-121,共20页中国经济学人（英文版）

摘　　要：Starting JPom a low level China＇s rapid urOamzatlon ttas talcen on a targe scale over the past three decades. The urbanization of urban clusters has become a key driver of China＇s economic development. However, China＇s urbanization has been confronted with many issues, such as high resource and environmental costs, low level of citizenship for migrant workers, strong economic polarization and excessive dependence on land encroachment. In the near future, China＇s urbanization will enter a period of strategic transitioning, and the enhancement of the quality of urbanization will become a strategic priority. China＇s urbanization rate is projected to reach 60% by 2020 and 68% by 2030, eventually exceeding 80% by 2050. China＇s future urbanization must proceed from local realities, promote the balanced development of small, medium-sized and large cities and towns, optimize the spatial layout of urbanization, and follow a sensible pattern.中国城镇化的起点低、速度快、规模大，地区差异明显，目前城镇化已经成为经济发展的重要引擎．城市群已成为推进城镇化的主体形态。但是，中国的城镇化也面临着诸多问题，如城镇化的资源环境代价大，市民化程度低，两极化倾向明显，城镇建设过度依赖土地等。在今后一段时期内，中国的城镇化将进入一个重要的战略转型期，全面提高城镇化质量将成为一个核心任务。预计自2020年中国城镇化率将达到80％左右．2030年将达到88％左右．2050年将超过80％，未来中国的城镇化，必须立足当地实际，促进大中小城市和小城镇协调发展，不断优化城镇化空间布局．推动形成科学合理的城镇化格局。

关 键 词：URBANIZATION citizenship of migrant workers structure of cities and towns multi-center networked development 

分 类 号：F299.21[经济管理—国民经济]