货币政策对区域消费影响的差异性——基于动态自回归分布滞后模型  

An Empirical Analysis about the Different Effects of China's Monetary Policy on the Regional Consumption——Based on Dynamic Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model

作　　者：葛腾飞[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽工业大学工商学院,安徽马鞍山243002

出　　处：《广西财经学院学报》2015年第2期51-55,共5页Journal of Guangxi University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：安徽省2012年度高校省级优秀青年人才基金人文社科重点项目"基于微观主体视角--我国货币政策区域效应及其成因研究"(2012SQRW206ZD)

摘　　要：基于经典的宏观经济理论,建立一个包含收入、消费、货币供给和货币需求等经济变量在内的动态自回归分布滞后计量(ADL)模型,然后利用1993—2013年我国东、中、西部地区的面板数据实证分析货币政策对于区域消费影响的差异性,得出我国货币政策具有明显时滞性的结论,并且东、中、西部地区消费支出在面对货币政策冲击时的反应时期和方向具有显著差异。Based on the classical macroeconomic theory,the paper establishes a dynamic autok-regressive distributed lag （ADL）model,including income, consumption, money supply, money demand and other economic variables. Then,using the panel data of the east,central and western regions of China during 1993-2013,the author empirically analyses the difference impact of China＇s monetary policy on regional consumption. The result shows that China＇s monetary policy has significant time delay,and there is significant difference in the reaction period and direction of consumer spending in the face of the impact of monetary policy during the east,central and western region.

关 键 词：货币政策 区域消费 动态自回归分布滞后模型 

分 类 号：F061.9[经济管理—政治经济学]