天然气出口国论坛的缘起发展及困境  

The Gas Exporting Countries Forum's debut,development and dilemma

作　　者：王涛[1] 曹峰毓 

机构地区：[1]云南大学国际关系研究院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2015年第4期6-13,33,共9页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：天然气出口国论坛是俄罗斯、伊朗等国为维护国家利益而成立的天然气出口国政府间组织。论坛自2001年成立至今,逐渐完善了组织机构、章程,并尝试向卡特尔组织的方向转型,但因天然气市场的变革而受挫,转而通过召开首脑峰会增加论坛影响。综观论坛的发展历程,其影响一直有限,无法与石油输出国组织(欧佩克)相提并论。究其原因,页岩气革命的发生、液化天然气产量的增长、现货市场贸易与自由竞争定价机制的流行,以及天然气市场一体化的趋势,都成为制约论坛发展的重要因素。未来,世界天然气市场将日益趋向买方市场,天然气出口国论坛的发展前景不容乐观。The Gas Exporting Countries Forum is an intergovernmental organization of natural gas exporters. The GECF serves the interests of Russia, Iran and ten other natural gas exporting country members. The institutional framework and statutes of the GECF have improved over the years. Transition of the GECF into a cartel failed because of the revolution transforming the global natural gas market. The GECF instead organizes a summit to achieve the Forum's more practical objectives and thereby increase its influence. However, the GECF's influence doesn't compare with OPEC's. The shale gas revolution, growth in liquifi ed natural gas production, the popularity of spot market trading and freely competitive(i.e. 'gas-on-gas') market pricing mechanisms, and global natural gas market integration are all important factors constraining the GECF's development. The global natural gas market is becoming a buyers' market for the foreseeable future, leaving prospects for the GECF unpromising.

关 键 词：天然气出口国论坛 “天然气欧佩克” 天然气市场 油气价格联动机制 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济] F746.12