中国储蓄率动态与影响机制研究  

A Study on China's Saving Rate Dynamic Mechanism

作　　者：刘尧成[1] 

机构地区：[1]苏州大学商学院,邮政编码215021

出　　处：《经济评论》2015年第3期31-43,共13页Economic Review

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"国际量化宽松冲击对中国经济的动态影响与应对策略研究"(批准号:13CJL030);上海市哲学社会科学规划课题"中国国际收支失衡的可持续性与最优对策组合研究"(批准号:2012EJL001)的科研资助

摘　　要：本文分析了中国高储蓄率的动态表现,指出解释储蓄率不断上升的事实是理解中国"高储蓄率之谜"的关键。为了理解这个特征事实,我们建立一个扩展的缓冲存货模型,分析了存在信贷约束时,随机冲击导致人力财富比例变动从而引起储蓄率波动的动态影响机制,指出该机制中存在着"金融加速器"效应,表现为居民在面临随机冲击时通过增加储蓄会获得流动性溢价,而且流动性溢价与随机冲击的程度成正比,因此该效应会放大储蓄率的波动。运用该模型对中国储蓄率动态进行的数值模拟发现,该模型不仅能够解释中国储蓄率不断上升的长期趋势,也能够较好地模拟其短期的周期性波动。In this paper,we firstly analyze the dynamics of China＇s high saving rate and declare that the increasing trend is the main stylized fact,which is also the key point to understand China＇s high saving rate puzzle. We then construct and expand a ＂Buffer- Stock＂model to analyze the mechanism of China＇s saving rate when there is borrowing constraint. We declare that stochastic shocks change the human wealth ratio and then affect China＇s saving rate dynamics,in which mechanism there is a financial accelerator that agents will increase savings when facing stochastic shocks,and by which they can obtain liquidity premium and the premium is positively related to the degree of stochastic shocks,therefore,this mechanism will accelerate the fluctuation of saving rate. Finally,we use this model to simulate China＇s saving rate fluctuations during 1978- 2013,and find that this model can simulate both the trend and the cyclical components of China＇s saving rate.

关 键 词：高储蓄率 人力财富比例 金融加速器 

分 类 号：F832.22[经济管理—金融学]