货币扩张、投资约束与家庭消费:理论模型与中国经验  

Monetary Expansion,Investment Constraints and Household Consumption:Theoretical Models and Chinese Empirical Evidence

作　　者：徐小君[1] 

机构地区：[1]华侨大学经济与金融学院,邮政编码362021

出　　处：《经济评论》2015年第3期44-55,71,共13页Economic Review

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"资源要素价格改革背景下潜在通货膨胀风险与居民承受能力研究"(项目编号:14BJY013);福建省社科项目"转型期微观企业行为调整与宏观经济波动研究"(项目编号:2014B176);中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目.华侨大学哲学社会科学青年学者成长工程团队项目"中国潜在通胀风险研究:价格粘性与结构性因素"(项目编号:13SKGC-QT04)资助

摘　　要：为考察扩张性货币冲击对家庭消费支出的影响方向和大小,本文首先在动态随机一般均衡框架内构建企业的营运资本模型,货币扩张通过银行向企业提供的营运资本信贷影响整体经济。理论模型的数值模拟结果显示,如果家庭支出中只有消费受到流动性约束,货币扩张对消费支出产生负向效应;如果家庭的消费和投资支出都受到流动性约束,并且投资存在实际摩擦,货币扩张对消费产生正向效应。文章随后利用中国宏观经济季度数据,运用结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型进行了经验研究。基于长期约束条件和符号约束条件的SVAR模型的计量结果均说明,我国经济中的扩张性货币冲击促进了家庭的消费支出。经验研究支持了理论模型中的投资约束假设。To investigate the effect of expansionary monetary shock on the direction and magnitude of household consumption expenditures, this paper constructs working capital models in the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework. Monetary expansion influences economy through the bank＇s loans to firms＇ working capital. The numerical simulations of the theoretical models show that,if household consumption expenditures are only subject to liquidity constraints,monetary expansion on consumer spending has a negative effect; If household consumption and investment expenditures are subject to liquidity constraints and actual investment friction,monetary expansion has a positive effect on consumption. Then with Chinese quarterly macroeconomic data,we use the structural vector auto regression（ SVAR） model for empirical research. Results of SVAR model based on long- term constraints and sign constraints show that expansionary monetary shocks promote household consumption expenditures in China. This conclusion supports the investment constraint hypothesis proposed by the theoretical model.

关 键 词：家庭消费 投资约束 货币扩张 SVAR模型 符号约束 

分 类 号：F832.4[经济管理—金融学]