工业化国家与新兴市场经济体碳排放驱动因子差异性研究  

Differences of Driving Forces of CO_2 Emissions among Traditional Industrialized Countries and Emerging Market Economies in the World

作　　者：姚从容[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院人口与发展研究所

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2015年第5期69-80,128-129,共12页World Economy Studies

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(NKZXB1415)

摘　　要：文章根据国际能源署（IEA）1971～2010年碳排放数据，运用IPAT模型检验G20国家碳排放及其驱动因素变化的差异性。结果发现：（1）经济增长是所有工业化国家和新兴经济体碳排放增长的最主要正向驱动因素，对于新兴经济体而言，人口增长和城市化也是重要的正向驱动因素；（2）能源强度是大部分工业化国家和部分新兴市场经济体（中国、印度、韩国、土耳其和印度尼西亚）的主要负向驱动因子，但同时又是一些国家（如法国、巴西、墨西哥、南非和沙特阿拉伯）碳排放的正向驱动因子；（3）能源碳强度在部分新兴市场经济体（如南非、俄罗斯联邦、阿根廷、巴西和墨西哥）作为负向驱动力正在抑制碳排放的增长，而在其他新兴市场经济体（如中国、印度、印度尼西亚）仍然作为正向驱动力在推进碳排放的增长，但其增长趋势已出现明显下降。无论工业化国家还是新兴市场经济体，依据各自影响碳排放增长的首要正向驱动因子和负向驱动因子制定相应的适应性碳减排策略，有助于进一步推动各国在减缓气候变化方面行动的有效性和可靠性。This study aims to identify main driving factors of CO_2 emission in G20 countries. The results show there are significantly different drivers of CO_2 emission between traditional industrialized economies and emerging market economies. In general,economic growth is the main factor driving CO_2 emission. Apart from economic growth,population growth also has a strong effect on CO_2 emission in emerging market economies,such as Mexico,South Africa,Brazil,Turkey,and Argentina. In addition,urbanization is an important driving force for emission growth in emerging market economies,such as China,Indonesia,South Korea,Turkey,Saudi Arabia,India,and Brazil. These drivers of growth in emission are partly compensated by improved efficiency or energy intensity in most traditional industrialized economies( except for France) and some emerging market economies,such as China,India,South Korea,Turkey,and Indonesia,whereas in other G20 countries,such as France,Brazil,Mexico,South Africa,and Saudi Arabia,energy intensity was a growth driver for CO_2 emission. Our results suggest that,in order to mitigate CO_2 emissions,policies need to be focused on the main driving forces,and different countries require different policies to do justice to the differences in trajectories and possibilities.

关 键 词：碳排放 驱动因子 工业化国家 新兴市场经济体 IPAT模型 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易] X32[经济管理—世界经济]