泉州市与台湾贸易现状及发展建议  

An Analysis of the Quanzhou- Taiwan Trade and Suggestions

作　　者：陈茹云[1] 

机构地区：[1]泉州经贸职业技术学院信息技术系,福建泉州362000

出　　处：《黎明职业大学学报》2015年第1期40-45,共6页Journal of LiMing Vocational University

摘　　要：阐述泉州市和台湾贸易的现状,以泉州进出口贸易总额对数值作为研究对象,以台湾GDP对数值、台湾出口增长率对数值、台湾进口增长率对数值作为自变量,构建ARMA模型,分析变量之间的弹性关系。研究结果表明弹性系数分别为3.82%、0.001%、-0.003%,虽然泉州市与台湾贸易关系紧密,但发展空间仍很大,据此提出了加速吸引台资,增强技术合作,促进人才交流的建议。The status quo of the trade between Quanzhou and Taiwan is presented in the study. Taken the log- arithms of Quanzhou＇ s total import and export volumns as the research object, an ARMA model is constructed with logarithms of the GDP, export growth rates and import growth rates of Taiwan as independent variables, to determine variables elasticity. The findings indicate that the elasticity values were 3. 82%, 0. 001%, - 0.003 % respectively. Although the Taiwan - Quanzhou trade relations are close, there is still great room for growth. It is thus suggested that Quanzhou gain more efficiency in attracting investments, enhance technical cooperation and promote talent exchanges.

关 键 词：贸易 泉州市 台湾地区 ARMA模型 

分 类 号：F727[经济管理—产业经济]