基于未确知测度理论的公路隧道水害危险性评价  

Risk assessment on highway tunnel flood based on uncertainty measurement theory

作　　者：谭洪强[1] 邓红卫[1] 马浩鹏[1] 袁晓[1] 刘冰玉[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学资源与安全工程学院,湖南长沙410083

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2015年第4期166-172,共7页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家"十二五"科技支撑计划项目(2012BAC09B02);湖南省科技重大专项计划项目(2011FJ1003-3)

摘　　要：基于未确知测度理论,建立公路隧道水害危险性评价模型。从内因和外因的视角分析,同时将内因分为水害来源、通道、水量三个部分,采取隧道区降水量、地表水文情况、隧道区渗透系数、构造断裂带类型、围岩分级、岩土分类、单位涌水量、隧道区平均气温、隧道区植被覆盖率、隧道区地下水腐蚀性(酸性)、防排水措施情况、隧道施工分级、安全管理情况等共13项指标作为为确知测度模型的判别指标;根据相应的实测数据构建未确知测度函数,同时利用信息熵理论获得各判别指标的权重,依据置信度识别准则进行等级判定,最后得出公路隧道水害危险性评价结果。运用该方法对国内6条典型公路隧道的水害危险性进行评价,评价结果与公路隧道实际情况相吻合。因此,这种新方法能够应用到公路隧道水害的危险性评价中,并能解决公路隧道危险性评价的诸多因素不确定性问题,对其进行合理有效的评价。Based on the uncertainty measurement theory, a risk assessment model on water disaster of highway tun-nel was established.From the perspective of internal and external causes, while dividing internal causes into three parts including sources of water, the channel, and the water quantity, 13 main factors including infiltration of tun-nel area, situation of surface hydrology, permeability coefficient of tunnel area, tectonic fault type, surrounding rock classification, geotechnical classification, unit Inflow, average temperature of tunnel area, vegetation coverage rate of tunnel area, corrosive of tunnel groundwater（acidity）, waterproof and drainage measures, classification of tunnel construction, the safety management situation were adopted as discriminant indexes of uncertainty measure-ment model.The function of uncertainty measurement was established based on the experimental data.At the same time, the weights of discriminant indexes were obtained by using the information entropy theory, and the grade judgment was conducted based on confidence level recognition criteria.At last, the results of risk assessment on water disaster of highway tunnel were obtained.The water disaster hazards of six typical highway tunnels were eval-uated by applying the method, and the evaluation results were consistent with the actual situation of highway tun-nels.Therefore, this new method can be applied in the risk assessment of water disaster in highway tunnel, and can solve a lot of uncertainty problems in the risk assessment on water disaster of highway tunnel, and conduct a reasonable and effective evaluation.

关 键 词：未确知测度 公路隧道 水害 置信度识别 危险性评价 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]