可持续发展电源规划多目标决策模型研究  

Multi-Objective Decision Making Model Research for Generation Expansion Planning with Sustainable Development

作　　者：袁兆祥[1] 孔祥玉[2] 崔凯[1] 

机构地区：[1]国网北京经济技术研究院,北京市102209 [2]智能电网教育部重点实验室(天津大学),天津市300072

出　　处：《电力建设》2015年第5期25-30,共6页Electric Power Construction

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51377119)~~

摘　　要：在电源规划中,具有可持续发展的电源规划越来越受到重视。该文在综合考虑经济、科技、环境等多领域的情况下,分析了可持续发展的电源规划评价指标,并构建了考虑可持续发展的多目标电源规划决策模型。根据模型中目标变量、属性变量等因素变量特征分为不同的子集,并基于贝叶斯网络理论获得不同节点间的逻辑关系,降低了规划模型问题的复杂性。应用算例表明所提模型和求解方法可行、有效。People pay more and more attention on the sustainable development of generation expansion planning. Based on the comprehensive consideration on the economy,technology,environment of generation expansion planning,some evaluation indexes for generation expansion planning with sustainable development were proposed,and a multi-objective decision making model for generation expansion planning with sustainable development was constructed. Different subsets were divided according to the factor variable characteristics in model such as target variables,attribute variables,etc. And based on the theory of Bayesian netw ork,a logical relationships analysis method for different subsets was obtained,which could reduce the complexity of the planning model. Application examples show that the proposed model and its solution method are feasible and effective.

关 键 词：电源规划 可持续发展 贝叶斯网络 决策模型 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]