宏微观视角下的我国寿险市场退保率影响因素研究  

An Macro and Micro Analysis of Determinants for Life Insurance Policy Surrender Rate

作　　者：何欣[1] 陈华[1] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学保险学院,北京100081

出　　处：《保险研究》2015年第4期22-34,共13页Insurance Studies

基　　金：中国保险学会教保人身保险高校课题研究基金支持(课题编号:2012-03)

摘　　要：本文选用16家寿险公司2002—2012年的面板数据应用固定效应模型从宏观和微观两个角度来分析寿险公司退保率的影响因素。宏观经济因素中本文考虑了“财务危机效应”、“替代效应”和“支付贬值效应”，微观因素中本文考虑了各寿险险种的占比和保单质押贷款额两个变量。实证结果显示：在宏观经济因素中，本文的结果无法支持“利率替代效应”，“财务危机效应”中失业率对退保率的影响并不显著，“支付贬值效应”中，退保率随着通胀率的上升而上升，并且影响显著。在微观因素中，只有分红险占比对退保率的影响作用显著，其他险种对退保率影响不显著。退保率与保单质押贷款额正相关。We employed a fixed-effect panel data of 2002 -2012 from 16 life insurance companies to analyze the factors that influence the surrender rate of life insurance companies from both macro and micro aspects. We consid- ered＂ the financial crisis effect＂ ,＂ the substitution effect＂ and ＂the payment depreciation effect＂ in macro economic factors. In micro factors we considered the proportion of different life insurance products and the amount of policy loans. The empirical results shows that, among macro economic factors, the result doesn＇ t support ＂interest rate sub- stitution effect＂ ,for＂the financial crisis effect＂, the unemployment rate has no significant impact on the surrender rate, and for ＂the payment depreciation effect＂ ,the surrender rate significantly increases with the rise of inflation. Among micro factors, except for the participating insurance, other life insurance products has no significant effects on surrender rates. The surrender rate is positively related with the amount of policy loan.

关 键 词：宏观经济因素 微观因素 财务危机效应 替代效应 支付贬值效应 

分 类 号：F222.3[经济管理—国民经济]