京津冀能源消费与经济增长互动关系追踪  

Summarization on the interaction relation between energy consumption and economic growth in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Area

作　　者：郭轲[1] 王立群[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《城市问题》2015年第5期52-59,共8页Urban Problems

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(11YJA630127)

摘　　要：京津冀一体化协同发展面临着经济增长与环境污染的矛盾。运用协整分析与状态空间模型对1980-2012年京津冀地区的能源消费与经济增长的关系进行了实证分析。结果显示:京津冀地区的能源消费与经济增长密切相关,两者之间存在长期的均衡关系,且互为因果,经济发展具有对能源的更高的直接需求,能源的高投入对经济增长的推动作用明显;能源利用效率总体上在提高;能源弹性经历了波动下降、剧烈下降、加速上升、平稳收敛四个阶段,弹性变化受经济发展政策的影响较大,提高能源利用效率、转变经济发展方式、优化产业结构有助于能源消费弹性的收敛;京津冀三地的经济发展水平与能源利用情况存在较大差异,能源弹性处于不同水平。The coordinated development of the Beijing - Tianjin- Hebei region integration is faced with the contradiction between economic growth and environmental pollution. Based on the related data from 1980 to 2012, this essay studies the relation between energy consumption and economic growth in Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region with Co - integration, Granger causality test and State Space Model. The empirical analysis shows that the energy consumption and economic growth is closely related, exists a long - run equilibrium relation between two variables, which is not constant, but evolves over time. The energy con- sumption and economic growth promote each other, and energy efficiency in improving overall. Elastic energy has experienced four stages of falling volatility, sharp drop, accelerate, steady convergence, which is under the influence of economic develop- ment policy. It is helpful to the energy consumption flexibility towards convergence with improving the efficiency of energy utili- zation, transforming the pattern of economic development or opti- mizing the industrial structure. There is large difference between the level of economic development and energy utilization in Bei- jing, Tianjin and Hebei, which energy elasticity phase at differ- ent levels.

关 键 词：能源消费 经济增长 协整分析 状态空间模型 京津冀一体化 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济]