灰色Verhulst模型的初始值优化  

Study on Optimizing the initial Value of Grey Verhualst Model

作　　者：王健[1] 

机构地区：[1]安阳师范学院数学与统计学院,河南安阳455000

出　　处：《安阳师范学院学报》2015年第2期1-5,共5页Journal of Anyang Normal University

基　　金：河南省自然科学基金项目(0511013800)

摘　　要：讨论了一类灰色Verhulst模型的初始值优化问题.首先对模型的初始值增加扰动因素,然后通过最小化原始序列的一次累加序列与模拟序列之差,建立非约束优化模型,获得了扰动因素的一个计算公式,并提出一种改进的灰色预测模型.最后,通过实例验证了该改进模型可以有效提高预测精度.This paper discusses the optimizing initial value of grey Verhulst model,by adding the disturbing factors into the initial value of the model,and minimizing the differences between the 1-AGO sequence and simulation sequence of raw sequence and building an unconstrained programming model. It obtains a formula of disturbing factors,an amendatory grey Verhulst model was proposed in the paper. By comparison and analysis of some examples that amendatory model can have higher precision practicability and reliability

关 键 词：灰色VERHULST模型 扰动 初值修正 

分 类 号：N914.4[自然科学总论] F224.9[经济管理—国民经济]