变压器老化失效风险评估方法研究  

Study on risk assessment methods of transformer aging failure

作　　者：宣润然 杨涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]沈阳农业大学信息与电气工程学院,沈阳市110866

出　　处：《中国农机化学报》2015年第3期345-348,共4页Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划课题(2012BJA26B01)--低碳农村住宅结构及能量转换技术研究与示范

摘　　要：随着运行年数的增加,变压器老化失效的风险逐年增高,这使电力系统运行承受较大的潜在风险。本文根据某区域电网中相同型号的100组变压器的运行与退役数据,应用最小二乘法、梯度下降法等优化方法计算相关参数,建立变压器老化失效标准正态分布模型和威布尔分布模型。应用上述模型估计变压器的老化失效年龄,评估老化失效概率。通过以上方法有利于了解变压器比较精确的老化失效年龄,选择适合的分布模型计算老化失效概率。为电力公司规划、运行、维修和资产管理起到指导作用。With the increase of running years, the risk of aging failure of transformer is increasing year by year, and this makes the operation of power system bear a greater potential risk. According to the operational and aging failure data of 100 groups＇ transformers with the same type and region of power grid, the relevant parameters were calculated by using least square method and gradient descent method, and the standard normal distribution model and Welbull distribution model were established. Aging failure age of transformer and the probability of aging failure were estimated. Applying above methods could help us get accurate age of transformer aging failure and select appropriate model to calculate the probability. These models play guiding roles for power companies in planning, operation, and maintenance and asset management.

关 键 词：变压器 老化失效 风险评估 标准正态分布 威布尔分布 

分 类 号：TM407[电气工程—电器]