陕西省生产用水变动的驱动机制分析  

Driving Mechanism Analysis for Productive Water Consumption Changes in Shaanxi Province

作　　者：秦昌波[1] 葛察忠[1] 贾仰文[2] 段赟婷 

机构地区：[1]环境保护部环境规划院,北京100012 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2015年第5期131-136,共6页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目"中国环境税收政策设计与效应研究"(编号:12AZD040);环保公益性行业科研专项"稀土资源开发生态环境成本核算技术与环境损失评估>"(编号:201309043);自然科学基金重大项目"‘自然-社会’二元水循环耦合规律研究--以渭河为例"(编号:50939006);国家自然科学基金应急管理项目"十三五环境挑战及环境管理转型战略与政策研究"(编号:71441029)

摘　　要：水资源是人类社会发展不可或缺的重要战略资源,是社会经济可持续发展的基本保障。我国是一个缺水的国家,人均水资源只有世界平均水平的四分之一,而陕西人均水资源只相当于全国的52%,人口和经济集中的关中地区只相当于全国平均水平的15%。针对生产用水消耗问题,采用LMDI方法从经济规模效应、产业结构效应和用水技术效应三个方面分析了陕西省用水变动的驱动因素及影响程度。根据本文对陕西省2001年至2011年生产用水量变化的因素分解分析,可以得到4个结论:1陕西省生产用水消费量呈波动增长趋势,用水的增长速度远远落后于GDP的增长速度,生产用水量和经济发展呈现明显的"脱钩"效应;2经济规模效应是驱动陕西省生产用水增加的主要因素,经济增长带来的用水压力依然巨大,如果不考虑结构调整和用水效率进步,10年间陕西省用水量增长幅度将超过140%;3农业生产比重的下降是经济结构效应驱动陕西省生产用水下降的主要原因,但是其他行业的结构调整总体上对抑制用水增加起负面作用;4通过技术进步效应是抑制陕西省用水量增加的主要因素,特别是农业、石油和天然气开采业、金属矿采矿业、化学工业、金属冶炼及压延加工业、通用专用设备制造业等耗水行业的用水效率提高有效减少了用水总需求。文章最后结合实证分析结果提出了提高陕西省水资源利用效率的相关建议:1加强用水总量控制,努力提高水资源循环利用率,从而有效抑制生产用水的快速增长;2加快产业结构调整,逐步降低高耗水产业的比重,依托陕西省的科技和教育资源优势,大力发展装备制造业、高技术产业和现代服务业,快速提高高效用水行业的经济结构比例;3强化企业生产过程和工序用水定额管理,通过阶梯水价、节水奖励政策促进企业积极研发使用低耗水的生产工艺;4加�Water is an important strategic resource in human social development and the basic guarantee for socioeconomic sustainable development. China is a water shortage country and the average per capita water resource only equals to a quarter of that in the world. As for Shaanxi Province, the average per capita water resource equals to 52% of the national average level. For water consumption issues of production, this article used LMDI method to analyze driving factors and impacts of water consumption changes in Shaanxi Province from three aspects including scale effect, structure effect and technique effect. Based on analysis of the driving factors decomposition of water consumption change, four conclusions are as follows：①Quantity of water consumption in Shaanxi Province is in the fluctuating growth trend, the growth rate of GDP is far beyond that of water consumption. ②Economic scale effect is the main factor to drive water consumption increase in Shaanxi Province, the water consumption pressure brought by economic development is still enormous. If structure adjustment and water consumption efficiency increase are not considered, the increase rate of water usage in Shaanxi Province will be over 140% in 10 years. ③Decrease of agriculture proportion is the main reason for decline of production water consumption, but in the whole structure adjustments of other sectors have negative effects on suppressing water consumption increase. ④Technique effect is the main factor for suppressing water consumption increase. Water use efficiency is effective to reduce the total water demand, especially in high water consumption industries including agriculture, oil, mining, chemistry, etc. With all of these conclusions, this article proposed relative suggestions as follows：①Strengthen total control of water consumption, increase recycling rate of water resource, and effectively suppress the increase of water consumption. ②Speed up industrial restructuring, gradually decrease proportion of high water consumption indus

关 键 词：用水消耗 因素分解 LMDI 陕西省 

分 类 号：X52[环境科学与工程—环境工程]