我国棉花生产的空间格局演化及集聚因素分析  

Study on cotton production's spatial distribution, changes and influencing factors in China

作　　者：揭懋汕 雪燕[2] 薛领[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学政府管理学院,北京100871 [2]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《农业现代化研究》2015年第3期387-393,共7页Research of Agricultural Modernization

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2012CB955803);国家自然科学基金(441071077)

摘　　要：采用探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)方法,对1978-2011年全国31个省级地区棉花生产的空间分布格局及其演化进行分析的基础上,利用地理加权模型(GWR)比较1990年和2011年棉花生产空间集聚的影响因素。研究表明:我国棉花生产一直保持较高的集中水平,但空间集聚程度在全国尺度上有较大下降,呈现由集聚变为分散分布的整体格局;在区域尺度上,山东、河南、江苏和安徽等局部地区一直为高值集聚区,呈现出空间集聚的分布特征;劳动力投入长期对我国棉花生产布局具有正向影响,单产和纺织工业总产值的影响有所增强,而光照和化肥使用的影响则相对减弱。This paper used Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis （ESDA） to illustrate the changes of spatial distribution of cotton production at provincial level. Geographically Weighted Regression （GWR） model was applied to compare the impacting factors of spatial pattern of cotton production and their changes in 1990 and 2011. The results indicate that cotton production were mainly in Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu and Anhui Provinces with a strong spatial pattern at provincial level. However, there had been rapid change in the pattern, with an increasing degree of spatial dispersion at national level. Furthermore, agricultural labor had a positive effect on cotton production agglomeration in both years. The effect of per unit yield and output value of textile industry had become stronger. In contrast, the impacts of annual sunshine duration and consumption of chemical fertilizers were weaker in 2011 compared with those in 1990.

关 键 词：棉花生产 空间格局 ESDA GWR 影响因素 

分 类 号：F326.12[经济管理—产业经济]