黄河入海径流量变化特征及其对气候变化的响应  

Runoff into the Sea of the Yellow River: Characteristics and Its Response to Climate Change

作　　者：张翠[1] 韩美[1] 史丽华[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东师范大学人口.资源与环境学院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《人民黄河》2015年第5期10-14,共5页Yellow River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41371537);山东省科技计划项目(2013GSF11706)

摘　　要：以黄河口利津水文站1950—2012年实测径流量资料为基础,采用Mann-Kendall秩次相关检验法与多元回归方法,对入海径流量的年内、年际和年代际变化特征进行了分析,并结合流域气象资料探讨了入海径流对气候变化的响应。结果表明：入海径流量年内分配极不均匀,主要集中在7—10月;入海径流量年际变化较大,呈现较明显的阶段性变化特征;入海径流量在年代际上具有明显的丰枯变化特征,径流量随时间呈振荡式变化,各年代年径流量变差系数CV为0.185-0.481,径流总体下降趋势显著;入海径流量与气温呈显著的负相关关系,与降水量则呈显著的正相关关系,气温与入海径流量的关系更为密切。Based on the observed（1950--2012） runoff data of the Lijin Hydrometric Station in the Yellow River estuary, an analysis was made on the variation characteristics of runoff into the sea including yearly runoff,interdecadal runoff in the past 63 years by using Mann - Kendall rank correlation test method and multiple regression method. Combining annual mean precipitation and annual mean temperature data collected from the Yellow River basin, this paper discussed the response of runoff into the sea to the climate change. Results show that：the annual variability of the runoff is violent, and the distribution of yearly runoff into the sea is extremely uneven, mainly concentrated in the period of July - October. The interannual variation is large, showing obvious phased change characteristics. Runoff shows oscillatory changes over time ,the annual runoff coefficient of variation varies from 0. 185 to 0.481. Overall ,the downward trend in runoff is significant. Meteorological factors and runoff correlation analysis show that ： there is a significant negative correlation between runoff into the sea and air temperature, while correlation analysis between runoff into the sea and precipitation reflects a significant positive correlation characteristic, and the rela- tionship between temperature and runoff into the sea is more closely.

关 键 词：MANN-KENDALL法 多元回归法 气候变化 径流量 黄河口 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学] TV882.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]