Drought Response to Air Temperature Change over China on the Centennial Scale  

作　　者：CHEN Huo-Po SUN Jian-Qi 

机构地区：[1]Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences [2]Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

出　　处：《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》2015年第3期113-119,共7页大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the ‘Strategic Priority Research Program-Climate Change: Carbon Budget and Relevant Issues’ of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No.XDA05090306);the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41305061);the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955401)

摘　　要：Climate data from the Climatic Research Unit （CRU） for the period 1901-2013 are used to investigate the drought response to air temperature change over China on the centennial scale. Drought is observed to have increased evidently across China, except for some regions in eastern China. This increase is much stronger in northern China compared to southern China, especially in Northwest and North China. These change characteris- tics of drought are closely associated with air temperature change, with the severe droughts in the major drought episodes of the last century generally coinciding with higher temperatures. The significantly increasing trend of drought in China based on observations only appears when considering the effects of air temperature change, which can explain -49% of droughts in observations and 30%-65% of droughts in Coupled Model Intereomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） model simulations. Furthermore, the response of drought to air temperature change generally increases as the drought time scale increases. Furthermore, drought shows relatively high sensitivity in spring and early summer in China on the centennial scale.来自为时期的气候的研究单位(CRU ) 的气候数据 19012013 被用来调查干旱反应在一百年的规模上在中国上让温度变化通风。干旱被观察越过中国显然增加了，除了在东方中国的一些区域。这增加在与南部的中国相比的北中国是猛烈得多的，特别在西北和诺思中国。干旱的这些变化特征仔细与空气温度变化被联系，与在通常与更高的温度与一致的最后世纪的主要干旱事件的严重干旱。当认为空气温度的效果变化时，在中国的干旱的显著地增加的趋势仅仅基于观察出现，它能在联合模型 Intercomparison 工程阶段 5 在干旱的观察和 30%65% 解释 49% 干旱(CMIP5 ) 为模拟建模。而且，当干旱时间规模增加，到空气温度变化的干旱的反应通常增加。而且，干旱在一百年的规模上在中国在春天和早夏天显示出相对高的敏感。

关 键 词：DROUGHT air temperature RESPONSE centennial scale China 

分 类 号：P423.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]