Projected Climate Change against Natural Internal Variability over China  

作　　者：JIANG Jiang SUI Yue LANG Xian-Mei 

机构地区：[1]Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences [2]State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences [3]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences [4]Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

出　　处：《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》2015年第4期193-200,共8页大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2012CB955401);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41375084)

摘　　要：The ability of 42 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) models in simulating the annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation over China is first examined by using their historical experiments for 1986–2005, and then 39 relatively reliable models are chosen to project temperature and precipitation changes against the natural internal variability over the country under the Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP) scenarios in the 21 st century. The result shows the temperature continuing to increase, especially in northern China. The annual warming for 2081–2099 relative to 1986–2005 over the whole of the country is larger than the background variability, with the multimodel median changes under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 being 9.9, 19.3, 22.8, and 35.9 times greater than one standard deviation of internal variability, respectively. The annual precipitation is projected to increase by 6.1%, 9.3%, 9.6%, and 16.2% for 2081–2099 relative to 1986–2005 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 respectively, while large changes with high model agreement only occur over the northern Tibetan Plateau and Northeast China, which is mainly due to the robust changes in winter and spring under RCP6.0 and RCP8.5.The ability of 42 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5（CMIP5） models in simulating the annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation over China is first examined by using their historical experiments for 1986–2005, and then 39 relatively reliable models are chosen to project temperature and precipitation changes against the natural internal variability over the country under the Representative Concentration Pathways（RCP） scenarios in the 21 st century. The result shows the temperature continuing to increase, especially in northern China. The annual warming for 2081–2099 relative to 1986–2005 over the whole of the country is larger than the background variability, with the multimodel median changes under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 being 9.9, 19.3, 22.8, and 35.9 times greater than one standard deviation of internal variability, respectively. The annual precipitation is projected to increase by 6.1%, 9.3%, 9.6%, and 16.2% for 2081–2099 relative to 1986–2005 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 respectively, while large changes with high model agreement only occur over the northern Tibetan Plateau and Northeast China, which is mainly due to the robust changes in winter and spring under RCP6.0 and RCP8.5.

关 键 词：TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION internal variability China CMIP5 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]