工程建设效果后评价博弈论集对分析模型的建立与应用  

Establishment and application of set pair analysis model based on game theory for post-assessment of project construction effectiveness

作　　者：郭燕红[1] 邵东国[1] 刘玉龙[2] 陈述[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉430072 [2]辽宁省水利水电勘测设计研究院,沈阳110006

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2015年第9期5-12,共8页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金："十二五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAD08B05-3);国家自然科学基金面上项目(51379150);国家自然科学基金重点项目(51439006)

摘　　要：针对工程建设效果后评价中具有很多确定性和不确定性因素,且评价因子与等级标准间存在着复杂的非线性关系这一大难题,该文将集对分析理论和博弈论相结合,提出基于博弈论的集对分析模型。该模型运用博弈论确定指标权重,然后将指标实际值和等级标准值构成一个集对,根据集对分析方法计算其综合联系度,据此判断评价对象的等级及其在等级间的转化趋势。之后引入集对的同势、反势、均势分析系统内部各子系统之间的协调程度进而解释转化趋势的内在原因。最后将模型运用于湖南省农村饮水安全工程建设效果后评价中,并与突变评价法相比较。结果显示:湖南省14个市(州)中有3个地区(衡阳、郴州、永州)农村饮水安全级别为"优",3个地区(常德、益阳、娄底)农村饮水安全级别为"一般",其他地区农村饮水安全均"良好";长沙和怀化农村饮水安全系统协调性很强,工程可持续发展水平高;娄底农村饮水安全系统协调性一般,工程可持续发展水平不高;株洲农村饮水安全系统极不协调,工程可持续发展状况不容乐观;衡阳和郴州农村饮水安全系统基本不协调,工程可持续发展状况较差;其他市农村饮水安全系统基本协调,工程后续效益较为稳定。方法对比表明该文方法的研究结果可靠度更高,反映出的信息更全面、合理。该研究可为类似或后续工程管理提供决策参考。Scientific and reasonable evaluation of project construction effectiveness plays an important role in the follow-up project management. However, the post-assessment of project construction effectiveness is a multi-complex system involved in many certain and uncertain factors, with complicated nonlinear relationship between evaluation indicators and grade standards, which should be considered in post-assessment. In this study, a set pair analysis model based on game theory was developed. In the model, the weights of evaluation indicators were obtained by game theory, and then the connection degree of the single index was calculated in the support of certain and uncertain analysis method of set pair theory. Then, the comprehensive connection degree of the object was obtained based on the model. So the evaluation grades and the transformation trend between grades of objects were confirmed. Based on the above analysis, the set pair situation was introduced to analyze the coordination among the subsystems, clarify the underlying causes of transformation trend and evaluate the sustainable development level of the project. The model was applied to the post-assessment of the rural drinking water safety project construction effectiveness of Hunan Province, and the results were compared with that from sudden change evaluation method. The results showed： 1） Project completion rate, qualification rate of project, water fee profit, completion rate of resolving rural drinking water difficulty, rural tap-water benefit rate, water quality and water environment protection of water functional zone were the main factors affecting rural drinking water safety in Hunan; Among these factors, water fee profit, rural tap-water benefit rate, water quality and water environment protection of water functional zone were key limiting factors of the project benefits; 2） Three areas （Hengyang, Chenzhou and Yongzhou） had “excellent” rural drinking water safety level, while Changde, Yiyang and Loudi had “general level”, and the

关 键 词：博弈论 水资源 协调性分析 后评价 集对分析 集对势 

分 类 号：S273[农业科学—农业水土工程] F224.32[农业科学—农业工程]