我国棉花进口贸易潜力分析  

A Positive Study on the Import Potential of Chinese Cotton

作　　者：刘春香[1] 朱丽媛[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江万里学院商学院,宁波315100

出　　处：《农业经济问题》2015年第5期91-97,112,共7页Issues in Agricultural Economy

基　　金：浙江省临港现代服务业与创意文化研究中心重点研究基地项目;国家软科学项目(编号:2013GXS2D025);宁波市社会科学研究基地项目(编号:JD14HJ)

摘　　要：本文基于我国棉花进口的实际情况,构建了改进型的贸易引力模型,利用2013年中国棉花进口额前40个贸易伙伴1992—2013年的面板数据,使用Eviews 6.0软件对中国棉花进口的发展潜力进行了分析。研究结果表明,我国从瑞士、尼日利亚、孟加拉、印度尼西亚、土耳其、澳大利亚等14个国家进口的棉花处于"过度进口"阶段;我国从喀麦隆、埃及、多哥、乍得、马里、印度等11个国家进口的棉花处于"进口饱和"阶段,从这些市场进口棉花的空间较有限;我国从科特迪瓦、赞比亚、马来西亚、塔吉克斯坦、巴西等15个国家进口的棉花处于"进口不足"阶段,而且我国应优先从出口价格较低的土库曼斯坦、伊朗和马来西亚进口棉花,并扩大从巴西和希腊两个棉花生产和出口大国的进口份额。Cotton is one of the most important resource agricultural products.Since 2003,China has become the world's largest importer of cotton.Overall,Chinese cotton import market is more concentrated.The three largest importing partners accounted for the total amount of 74.94%in 2013.What is the potential of cotton between China and the import partners? That should be answered by positive study.Based on the real status,this article has built up an improved gravity model,and used the panel data from 1992 until 2013 to analyze the potential by the top 40 countries,which have the big trading amount of cotton with China in 2013,with the help of the multiple linear regressions and Eviews 6.0.This positive analysis has drawn the conclusion that China has imported too much cotton from those 14 countries such as Switzerland,Nigeria,Bangladesh,Indonesia,Turkey and Australia.The importing markets of Cameroon,Egypt,Togo,Chad,Mali,India and the other 5 countries are already full enough.However,there is still much room to improve Chinese cotton importing capacity from such countries as The Ivory Coast,Zambia,Malaysia,Tajikistan,Brazil and the other 10 countries.China should give priority to Turkmenistan,Iran and Malaysia because of the lower export prices of cotton.In addition,China should expand the importing share from Brazil and Greece.

关 键 词：改进型引力模型 棉花出口价格 进口发展潜力 多元回归分析 

分 类 号：F326.12[经济管理—产业经济] F752.61