中国炼油能力过剩问题研究  

Research on the Excess of Refining Capacity in China

作　　者：孙会东[1] 李军[1] 宋爱萍[1] 仇玄[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油天然气股份有限公司规划总院

出　　处：《石油规划设计》2015年第3期5-8,48,共4页Petroleum Planning & Engineering

摘　　要：通过对2013年中国炼油能力和汽油、柴油供需现状的分析,国内炼油能力已经出现阶段性过剩,特别是东北、西北和华东地区。如果国内炼油规划项目继续实施,则2020年中国的炼油能力将达到8.69×108t/a。若汽油、柴油出口按2 000×104t/a考虑,根据汽油、柴油分地区的供需平衡情况预测,预计国内汽油、柴油将过剩5 925×104t/a,折合炼油能力约1×108t/a,主要过剩地区是东北、华东和华南。此外,由于消费的柴油汽油比将继续下降至约1.3,而生产的柴油汽油比保持在1.76或更高,柴油过剩趋势明显,出口压力较大。提出了调整规划炼油能力建设步伐、淘汰落后炼油能力、鼓励来料加工等措施应对炼油能力过剩的问题。Based on the analysis of China's refining capacity, gasoline and diesel supply and demand in 2013, the domestic refining capacity has been periodic surplus, especially in the Northeast, Northwest and East of China. If the domestic refining planning projects continue, the China's refining capacity will reach 869 million tons per year in 2020. According to the supply and demand balance forecasts of gasoline and diesel by region, if gasoline and diesel exports by 20 million tons per year, domestic gasoline and diesel will be excess 59.25 million tons per year which is equivalent to 100 million tons per year of refining capacity. And the major surplus areas are the Northeast, East and South of China. In addition, due to the consumption of diesel-gasoline ratio will continue to decline to 1.3, while the production of diesel-gasoline ratio is maintained to 1.76 or higher, diesel surplus trend is clearly obvious and export pressure is high. In this paper, the construction pace of planned capacity is suggested to adjust, the poor refining capacity should be eliminated, and the processing with supplied materials should be encouraged to deal with the problem of excess refining capacity.

关 键 词：炼油能力 柴油汽油比 需求量 供应量 产销平衡 过剩 

分 类 号：TE626[石油与天然气工程—油气加工工程]