水资源承载力研究进展及启示  

Review of Research Progress in Carrying Capacity of Water Resources

作　　者：党丽娟[1,2] 徐勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2015年第3期341-348,共8页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学资助项目"黄土高原半城镇化农民非农生计"(41171449)

摘　　要：水资源是资源环境的重要组成之一,对水资源承载力研究历程、方法及应用成果的梳理总结,有益于我国资源环境承载能力监测预警工作的开展以及生态文明的建设。该文在划分国内外关于水资源承载力研究历程阶段特征的基础上,重点对水资源承载力的概念、指标体系及研究方法等进展进行了总结评述。研究认为:(1)水资源承载力内容主要集中在水资源开发规模、水资源承载最大人口规模以及经济系统持续发展规模等方面;(2)水资源承载力指标体系的建立不应以数量多占优,关键在于建立水资源系统与被承载对象之间的耦合关系,即成为联接被承载对象(人口、经济、生态)结构、规模及未来发展变化的桥梁,实现各个指标能够清晰解释承载力所刻画的内容及特征;(3)水资源承载力研究方法可概括为现状评价方法和情景预测方法,分别对应水资源的开发能力和对经济社会可持续发展的支撑规模。基于人均综合效用水平的水资源承载力的研究,如何量化可持续发展这一概念成为研究难点。该研究认为以最小用水单元为主线,通过每个用水单元与社会、经济、生态、环境系统的联接关系,构建用水指标体系,从而确定水资源承载的各个系统发展潜力和规模,可为区域发展和水资源承载力的研究提供新思路。Water resources is one of the most critical factors of resources and environment. The review of research on water resources carrying capacity including research history, method and application is not only beneficial to implement of monitoring and forecasting the national resources and environmental carrying capacity, but also valuable to ecological civilization construction. By analyzing the feature and phases division of domestic and international research history on carrying capacity of water resources we reviewed and summarized the definition, indicator systems and calculation methods of water resources carrying capacity. This research suggested that： （1） maximum water resources development scale, maximum population scale and sustainable economic scale were emphasized in previous researches; （2） building up the tight coupling between water resources system and carrier of water resources carrying capacity was more critical than list quantity of indicators, the indicators connecting the water resources system and the structure, scale and tendency of population, economic and ecological system could describe the feature and content of carrying capacity in a clear way; （3） the representative method could be categorized into assessment method and fore- cast method, which is specific to maximum water resources development scale and social-economic supporting scale. Although these researches have achieved great advances and made substantial progress, how to qualify the sustainable development in this field becomes difficulty to determine the social-economic scale and capa- bility of water resources development. The way of taking minimum water utilization units as thread, by con- necting social, economic, ecological and environment system, constructing effective index system to calculate the potential and scale for regional development, could be the reference and idea for the future researches.

关 键 词：水资源承载力 概念 指标体系 研究方法 评述 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]