东昆仑断裂带玛曲—玛沁段大震危险性分析和探讨  

Analysis and Discussion of Large Earthquake Risk along the Maqu-Maqin Segment of the East Kunlun Fault Zone

作　　者：温燕林[1] 宋治平[2] 赵文舟[1] 朱佳苗 马钦忠[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海市地震局,上海200062 [2]中国地震台网中心,北京100045

出　　处：《地震工程学报》2015年第1期175-180,共6页China Earthquake Engineering Journal

基　　金：上海市地震局科技专项(2012专10);上海市科委科研计划(12231202700);中国地震局地震科技星火计划(XH12016)

摘　　要：在巴彦喀拉块体边界地震活动和构造分析的基础上,从地震活动空间图像、时间序列演化两方面对巴彦喀拉块体北边界东昆仑断裂带玛曲—玛沁空区的大震危险性进行探讨。与以前震例进行对比发现当前甘青川交界区域已形成与共和大震前相似的平静区,活动性参数计算表明东昆仑断裂带玛曲—玛沁段有逼近的大震危险性。In this paper,based on the seismicity and seismic structural analysis of the margin of the Bayan Har block,we discuss the risk of large earthquakes in the Maqu-Maqin seismic gap with regard to spatial seismicity patterns and temporal evolution of event sequences.According to paleo-earthquake and historical earthquake seismicities,there was an initial seismic gap at MaquMaqin along the east Kunlun fault,and therefore,large earthquakes will recur in this area.A second seismic gap,the seismic quiescence of no ML≥5.0earthquakes,has been detected in the same area since 2008.A comparison with previous earthquake cases showed that a similar period of seismic quiescence formed in the region of Gansu-Qinghai-Sichuan provinces before the 1990 Gonghe M7.0earthquake.The distribution of ML≥4.0earthquakes in the current seismic quiescence is also similar to that of the Gonghe M7.0case;hence,we think there is a risk of a large earthquake in the current gap.From the temporal sequences evolution analysis（M-T relations）,we found that seismicity in the Gonghe gap had undergone strong-weak-strong stages prior to the Gonghe M7.0earthquake.However,the seismicity in the current seismic gap in the region of Gansu-Qinghai-Sichuan provinces has also undergone the first two stages,and therefore,we conclude that it will soon reach the strong seismicity stage.We scanned the b-value distribution in this region,which showed that the b-values are very low around the east Kunlun fault and that there is locking in this area.We also calculated the spatial correlation lengths（SCL）and multiple fractal dimensions from the earthquake catalog of the Bayan Har block using GeoTaos.All the statistical seismicity parameters indicate that the risk of a large earthquake on the Maqu-Maqin segment of the east Kunlun fault is increasing,and therefore,researchers should monitor and study this area.

关 键 词：东昆仑断裂带 玛曲—玛沁空区 地震活动时空演化 大震危险性 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]