FTA背景下新西兰对中国农产品出口增长分析  

Analysis on Growth of Agricultural Products Export from New Zealand to China under FTA

作　　者：王贝贝[1] 肖海峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《北京航空航天大学学报（社会科学版）》2015年第3期97-102,共6页Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics：Social Sciences edition Edition

基　　金：国家现代农业(绒毛用羊)产业技术体系产业经济研究项目(2011-2015年)(CARS-40-20)

摘　　要：根据UN Comtrade数据库中贸易数据,采用恒定市场份额模型,对1997—2012年期间新西兰向中国农产品出口增长的影响因素进行了实证研究。结果表明,中国进口需求的增长是新西兰对中国农产品出口大幅增长的主要原因。在中国-新西兰自由贸易区建立后,增长效应对出口增长的带动作用明显减弱,商品效应和整体竞争效应贡献率有所回升,表明中国-新西兰自贸区建立后新西兰向中国出口的农产品结构有所优化,且在中国市场的整体竞争力提高;不同种类的农产品影响新西兰向中国出口农产品贸易额增长的因素有一定差异。By using trade data retrieved from UN Comtrade database, this paper uses Constant Market Share Model to analyze factors influencing the growth of New Zealand＇ s agricultural products export to China between 1997 and 2012. The results show that the demand increase of agricultural products in China is the most important factor that influences the changes in exports, and after the ratification of China-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement, growth effect is less responsive to the export growth while commodity effect and comprehensive competitiveness effect begin to play more important roles. According to different types of agricultural products, there are disparities in the factors affecting the agricultural export growth.

关 键 词：中国 新西兰 自由贸易协定 农产品 出口 恒定市场份额模型 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易]