贸易规模、贸易结构、贸易竞争力与中国谷物贸易变动——基于修正的CMS模型的实证分析  

Trade Scale, Trade Structure, Trade Competitiveness and the Change of China's Cereals Trade: An Empirical Study Based on Modified CMS Model

作　　者：孙致陆[1] 李先德[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2015年第5期34-46,共13页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71473253);中国博士后科学基金项目(2014M550910);中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(ASTIP-IAED-2015-06)

摘　　要：文章根据UN COMTRADE数据库数据,在分析1995~2012年中国谷物贸易变动现状的基础上,利用修正的CMS模型,从贸易规模、贸易结构和贸易竞争力三个方面分阶段对中国谷物进出口变动进行了双向分解,并从动态视角实证分析了影响中国谷物进出口变动的因素。研究表明,在贸易发展的不同阶段,贸易规模、贸易结构和贸易竞争力对中国谷物进出口变动的作用方向和作用程度不尽相同,但贸易竞争力一直是影响中国谷物进出口变动的主要决定因素;在出口方面,国内谷物竞争力下降是近年来中国谷物出口减少的主导因素,出口结构和国际市场需求也是影响中国谷物出口变动的重要因素;在进口方面,近年来中国谷物进口增加的主导因素是国外谷物竞争力强于国内谷物,进口结构和国际市场供给也是影响中国谷物进口变动的重要因素。Based on the data from UN COMTRADE Database, this paper analyzes the present situation of the change of China＇s cereals trade from 1995 to 2012, and by using modified CMS model, it conducts a two-way decomposition of the change of China＇s cereals import and export from the three aspects of trade scale, trade structure and trade competitiveness, and analyzes the influencing factors of the change of China＇s cereals import and export. The results show that, during different trade periods, the influencing direction and the influencing degree of trade scale, trade structure and trade competitiveness on the change of China＇s cereals import and export are also different, and trade competitiveness has always been the major determinant which influences the change of China＇s cereals import and export. On the side of export, decrease in the competitiveness of domestic cereals is the dominant factor which leads to the decrease in China＇s cereals export in recent years, and export structure and international market demand are also the important factors which influence the change of China＇ s cereals export. On the side of import, the dominant factor which leads to the increase in China＇s cereals import in recent years is that the competitiveness of foreign cereals is stronger than that of domestic cereals, and import structure and international market supply are also the important factors which influence the change of China＇ s cereals import.

关 键 词：贸易规模 贸易结构 贸易竞争力 谷物贸易 修正的CMS模型 

分 类 号：F732[经济管理—产业经济]