中国装备制造业出口增长的模式及国际比较:基于三元边际的分析方法  

The Mode and International Compare of China's Export Growth in Equipment Manufacturing Industry:Based on Three Margin Method

作　　者：刘瑶[1] 张晓磊 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学国际经济贸易学院,辽宁大连116025 [2]南京大学经济学院,江苏南京210046

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2015年第9期15-27,共13页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目"全球价值链体系重构对新兴经济体工资收入的影响"(71303036);中央财政支持地方高校发展专项资金优秀科研创新人才项目(DUFE2014R08);东北财经大学创新团队"深度经济一体化与国际经济规则重塑"(DUFE2014T03)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：借鉴三元边际的分析方法,将我国2003至2012年间装备制造业SITC四分位的双边出口额分解为广度边际、数量边际和价格边际,以此探究我国装备制造业出口增长的带动因素.非参数估计的实证结果发现,十年间中国装备制造业产品的世界份额复合增速为9.87%,这主要得益于我国出口产品的种类全面(广度边际高),并且数量边际、价格边际分别在2008年金融危机前、后起到主要的带动作用.对我国66个主要出口国的三元分解也支持了上述结论.最后将中国与美国、德国、日本、印度和巴西的三元分解结果相比较.By using three margin methods and SITC 4-digit trade data, this paper de- composes China＇ s bilateral exports in equipment manufacturing industry from 2003 to 2012 into extent, quantity and price margin, and try to find out the key factor which drives the growth. The nonparametric estimation shows that the 9.87% Compound Annual Growth Rate of China＇ s world share is contributed by extent margin, with the help of quantity or price margin before or after financial crisis respectively. We get similar conclusions based on bilat- eral trade data between China and its 66 trade partners. This paper also calculates the three margins of USA, Germany, Japan, India and Brazil, and compared the results with China.

关 键 词：三元边际 装备制造业 出口增长 

分 类 号：F426.4[经济管理—产业经济] F752.62