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出 处:《四川理工学院学报(社会科学版)》2015年第2期79-87,共9页Journal of Sichuan University of Science & Engineering(Social Sciences Edition)
基 金:湖南省大学生创新实验项目(SCX1402);国家社会科学基金资助项目(13CJY008)
摘 要:量化宽松的货币政策是指通过中央银行实行零利率或近似零利率政策后,增加基础货币的供给,向市场注入大量流动性资金的干预方式,使金融市场的环境更宽松,在经济衰退萎靡时期,是各国复苏经济与重振产业的主要手段。2007年开始的次贷危机给世界经济蒙上了萧条的阴影,许多大国为化解萧条的局面纷纷采取了量化宽松的货币政策。面对经济下行压力,经济增加速度放缓,中国为应对外部需求疲软、内部消费萎靡和产能过剩等危机,从2014年11月中国人民银行发出了降息的信号后开始加入量化货币政策。这种量化宽松的货币政策对中国经济规模最大,GDP增长贡献最多的房地产市场是否效果明显一直饱受争议。本文基于Z市1998年-2012年的相关数据构建了实证模型进行检验,采用逐步回归法对具体影响因素进行筛选分析,结果显示,城市房价受利率等金融货币政策的影响并不显著,相反住宅投资额与第二产业的发展推动了房价的上涨,具体表现为房地产规模的扩大及实体经济的强化。因此,单纯依靠金融政策救市的思路需要转变,通过发展实体经济、加速产业结构优化与升级、提振产业层次、实施稳健的货币政策等手段来挽救房地产市场更有效。Quantitative easing monetary policy refers to the central bank implements zero or near zerointerest rate policy to increase the supply of base money and injects massive liquidity into the market so thatthe financial market environment is more relaxed. In the period of economic recession, it is a major means ofnational economic recovery and reviving the industry. The Subprime Crisis started in 2007 puts a depressionshadow to the world economy. Many powerful countries in the world have adopted the quantitative easingmonetary policy to defuse the depression situation. In the face of economic downward pressure and economicgrowth speed slowing down, China began to implement this policy starting from Nov. 2014 when interest ratewas decreased to respond to weak external consumption, internal consumption malaise and overcapacity crisis.Whether the quantitative easing monetary policy has an obvious effect on the real estate industry that has thelargest contribution to GDP growth in Chinese economy is controversial. Based on the relative data of Z cityduring 1998-2012, this paper builds an empirical model to test and adopts stepwise regression method to filterand analyze the concrete influence factor. The results show that the interest rate and other monetary policies'effects on urban housing prices are not significant; instead, the residential investment andthe development ofthe second industry promote the rising of housing price, which is reflected in the expansion of real estate scaleand the strengthening of the real economy. Therefore, the financial policy rescuing idea needs to be changed.The way of developing the real economy, speeding up the industrial structure optimization and upgrading, andboosting the level of industry, and implementing the prudent monetary policy is more effective for rescuing thereal estate industry.
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