日本消费税增税的经济效果分析——基于1989年、1997年增税经验的比较  

A Analysis of the Economic Effect of the Consumption Tax Rate Increase in Japan——Compared with the Historical Experience in 1989 and 1997

作　　者：刘红[1] 张宁[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学国际关系学院,辽宁沈阳110136

出　　处：《辽宁大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2015年第3期158-165,共8页Journal of Liaoning University(Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家社科基金"日本民主党执政后的经济转型研究"(10BGJ010);日本国际交流基金资助的国际共同研究项目"东北亚国际关系的新形势与区域经济合作"(25-A1004)的研究成果

摘　　要：与1989年、1997年增税的历史经验相比,2014年安倍内阁的消费税增税举措,因在增税时点上受日本国内外经济环境好转,以及政府所采取的一系列综合经济对策影响,不会对日本经济景气造成持续过度的冲击。短期内,消费税增税会带来财政收入的增加,加快日本削减财政赤字步伐,减少财政对国债收入的过度依赖,对摆脱日本财政困境具有一定的积极作用。但从中长期看,因增税力度不够,主权债务问题难以得到彻底解决。今后日本有必要推动经济增长战略和社会保障制度改革,以确保经济复苏与财政健全化的同时实现。Compared with the historical experience in 1989 and 1997, the Japanese domestic and international economic environment has improved and a series of comprehensive economic measures has taken by the government now. This round of consumption tax rate increase will not cause great negative effect on Japanese economy. In the short term, raising the consumption tax will bring about an increase in fiscal revenue, accelerate the pace to cut the fiscal deficit and reduce excessive reliance on debt finance income. It will have a positive impact on the Japan＇ s fiscal predicament and become an important step of Japanese fiscal reconstruction. But in the long run, because the growth of tax revenue is not enough, the sovereign debt problems can not be solved thoroughly. In the next steps, Japan needs to work on three areas： economic growth strategies, social security reforms and fiscal system health.

关 键 词：历史经验 消费税 增税 经济效应 

分 类 号：F733.313[经济管理—产业经济]