1961-2012年滦河流域干旱演变分析  

Variation of droughts in Luanhe river basin,1961- 2012

作　　者：王腾飞[1] 苏布达[1,2] 翟建青[1,2] 姜彤[1,2] 温姗姗 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,遥感学院,南京210044 [2]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2015年第5期180-185,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展973计划项目(2012CB955903);国家自然科学基金(41171406);国家科技合作与交流专项(2011DFG23440);国家自然科学基金中德合作项目(GZ601);"十二五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAC20B05)联合资助

摘　　要：采用滦河流域16个气象站1961-2012年的逐月气象要素观测数据,计算了滦河流域的年标准化降水蒸散指数(Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index,SPEI),并利用线性趋势法、非参数Man-Kendall法和Morlet小波方法分析了流域近50年来干旱的演变趋势和周期变化规律。结果表明:SPEI指数可以很好的描述滦河流域的干湿变化趋势;1961-2012年滦河流域气温上升降水减少,呈暖干化态势;50年来滦河流域的干旱事件随时间变化呈频率增加、强度增强的趋势;干湿变化的主周期是14年。年平均气温及年降水和SPEI指数均呈显著相关,年降水对SPEI的影响更为显著,但气温变化的影响同样不可忽视。Based on the monthly meteorological parameters from 16 observational stations,standardized precipitation evapotranspiration indices（ SPEI） were calculated,and then,long term trends and periodic oscillation characteristics of droughts in the Luanhe river basin were analyzed also based on the various statistic methods. Research results revealed that SPEI indices can well describe the drought variation in Luanhe river basin satisfactory. With rising temperature and decreasing precipitation,drought situation in Luanhe had shown intensification trend in the last fifty years,and the main quasi- cycles drought periodicities were detected at about 14 a. Correlation analyses further indicate that both the temperature and precipitation had obvious positive relationship with annual SPEI. The annual precipitation had more significant influence on SPEI,but the rising temperature＇s effect also should not to be ignored.

关 键 词：干旱 标准降水蒸散指数 滦河流域 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]