甘肃旱作区玉米近40年干旱影响评估  

Variation of drought disaster characteristics and its risk assessment on maize for 40 years in the main growing area in arid regions of Gansu Province

作　　者：姚小英[1] 吴丽[1] 田广旭 周忠文 吴婷芳 

机构地区：[1]甘肃省天水市气象局,天水741000 [2]甘肃省陇南市气象局,武都746000 [3]甘肃省庆阳市气象局,西峰745000

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2015年第5期192-196,共5页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划2013CB430200(2013CB430206);博士科研启动项目KYS2012BSKYO2资助

摘　　要：运用1971-2010年甘肃旱作玉米主产区降水资料及产量资料,分析了40年干旱时空变化特征,建立了干旱影响玉米产量的风险评估指数,对玉米不同时期不同等级干旱风险进行了分析评估。结果表明:春旱以陇东黄土高原及陇西黄土高原的定西出现频率最高,均在0.35次/年以上;徽成盆地及两江流域出现频率最少,为0.18次/年;初夏旱出现频次最高的地区为环县,为0.35次/年,最少为西峰、成县及秦安;伏旱出现频率最高地区为环县及麦积,最低为定西一带;秋旱出现频率最高为陇东黄土高原平凉一带,最低为陇南地区。各地干旱均以轻旱为主,其次为中旱。40年中,上世纪90年代干旱出现频次最多,80年代最少。进入21世纪,秋旱发生频次明显减少,春旱则有相对增多的趋势。玉米全生育期陇南地区受旱灾影响风险最小,种植保险率最高;其次为陇西黄土高原;陇东黄土高原种植保险程度最低,干旱影响最大。Based on the precipitation data from 1971 to 2010 in eight weather stations which located in the maize growing area in arid regions of Gansu Province and the maize yield data,the spatial and temporal variation of drought characteristics for 40 years had been analyzed,the risk model index for assessing drought disaster was set up and the drought risk of maize was analyzed. The results showed that the drought frequency in spring was the highest in Longdong loess plateau and Dingxi in Longxi loess plateau,it was up to 0. 35- 0. 39 times / year; the least in Longnan regions,lower to 0. 18 times / year; the drought frequency in early summer was the highest in Huan county,up to 0. 35 times / year; the least in Xifeng,Cheng and Qinan counties; the drought frequency in hot summer was the highest in Huan county and Maiji district,the least in Anding; the drought frequency in autumn was the highest in Kuntong,the least in Longnan. The frequency of light drought was the highest and followed by middle drought. Drought frequency was the most in the 1990 s,the least in the 1980 s. The drought frequency in autumn has decreased significantly,and increased in spring since the 21 st century. The growing risk of maize in the whole stages was the least in Longnan,the insurance rate was the highest,up to 92- 94%,followed by Longxi loess plateau,the insurance rate was 90- 91%; drought risk was larger,the insurance rate was88- 90% in Longdong loess plateau.

关 键 词：玉米主产区 干旱灾害 评估 

分 类 号：S162[农业科学—农业气象学]