人口年龄结构变动对我国经济发展的影响研究  

Demographic Age Structure Transition on the Impact of Economic Growth Research

作　　者：王美凤 陈蓉[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学学院经济研究所,上海200020 [2]上海市人口与发展研究中心,上海201199

出　　处：《西北人口》2015年第3期95-99,105,共6页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：2009年度国家社会科学基金重大项目"21世纪中国人口老龄化与经济社会发展对策研究"(项目编号:09&ZD053)资助

摘　　要：随着生育水平的下降与预期寿命的延长,我国人口年龄结构已发生了极大转变。人口年龄结构的变动势必对经济增长及结构产生重大影响。为此,本文模拟一种理想状态,采用CGE模型定量分析仅人口年龄结构变动(假定城乡人口总数保持基年水平不变)对我国经济发展的影响。模拟结果表明,仅人口年龄结构变动将使我国经济总量呈现出缩减的趋势,对消费结构与产业结构产生一定影响,同时使养老金与医疗保险支出迅速增加,进而增大累计债务,加重财政负担。这对我国制定适宜人口政策,把握产业结构发展方向,维持社会经济稳定、健康、持续发展具有一定启示意义。As the decline of fertility and the extension of life expectancy,the population age structure has had the great change. The population age structure changes must have a significant impact on the economic growth and economic structure. To this end,this article assumes an ideal situation that urban and rural population remain constant in base year level,it quantitatively analyzes the impact of changes of only population age structure using the CGE model. Simulation study shows that the only population age structure changes make the economy show a reduced tendency;also have certain influence on consumption structure and industrial structure,make pension insurance and medical insurance expenditure increase rapidly at the same time,thus increase the accumulated debt and the financial burden. It is important significance for making population policy, grasping the development trend of industrial structure,maintaining economy stable and healthy sustainable development.

关 键 词：人口年龄结构 老龄化 可计算一般均衡模型 经济增长 经济结构 

分 类 号：F063.4[经济管理—政治经济学]