新型军人养老保险制度的构建及其转轨成本测算  

The Construction of the New Military Pension System and the Estimation of Transition Cost

作　　者：陈元刚[1] 冯丹[1] 蔡振武[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆理工大学经济与贸易学院,重庆400054

出　　处：《西部论坛》2015年第3期46-54,共9页West Forum

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(11BSH066);国家社会科学基金重大项目(12&ZD112);重庆理工大学研究生创新基金资助项目(YCX2014245)

摘　　要：我国现行军人养老保险是军队统筹,且保障范围狭窄、制度衔接不畅、实际养老待遇较低、财政负担过重、基金管理效率低下;为实现养老保险制度全民统筹和切实保障军人的养老权益,应构建社会统筹与个人账户相结合、辅以年金账户的新型军人养老保险制度。军人养老保险制度的转轨成本来源于当前军人养老保险制度下隐性债务的显性化,采用系统动力学模型对军人养老保险制度的转轨成本进行模拟测算,结果表明:截至2090年底转轨成本将全部显性化,"老人"和"中人"的转轨成本都呈先增后减的趋势,2035—2065年的转轨成本最高;借助社会统筹账户资金积累的缓冲和人口年龄与人口结构的变化,能够分散制度转轨带来的财务支付风险,改革不会对政府财政带来巨大压力。因此,应坚持养老保险社会统筹的改革方向,积极推进军人养老保险制度改革。Planned as a whole by the military, the current military pension system has some shortcoming such as narrow insurance coverage, weak link-up between systems, low pension level in practice, overloaded finance, low-efficient fund management. In order to plan the pension system by the nation and insure military pension right, a new military pension system should be constructed including pooling accounts, individual accounts and annuity accounts. The transition cost of military pension system comes from explicitation of recessive debt under the system of present military pension system. By system dynamics approach, the transition cost of military pension system is estimated. The results show that by the end of 2090, the transition costs is fully explicit; both transition cost of ＂old＂ and ＂middle aged＂ appear a high-to-low trend; from 2035 to 2065, the cost reaches a peak value. The pooling accounts capital accumulation buffer and the changes of population age structure, financial payment risks caused by system transition can be well dispersed, and the reform will not bring enormous pressure on government finances. Therefore, the direction of social overall planning for pension insurance should be held on and the reform of military pension system should be positively promoted.

关 键 词：军人养老保险制度 转轨成本 军队统筹 社会统筹账户 个人账户 年金账户 隐性债务显性化 保险基金管理 养老保险制度衔接 

分 类 号：F842.67[经济管理—保险]