城市化与能源强度的非线性关系研究——采用跨国数据的门限效应分析  

Research on Nonlinear Threshold Relationships Between Urbanization and Energy Intensity——A Threshold Effect Analysis Based on Cross-country Data

作　　者：史亚东[1] 

机构地区：[1]国际关系学院国际经济系,北京100091

出　　处：《西部论坛》2015年第3期91-99,共9页West Forum

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(13&ZD158);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(3262014T66)

摘　　要：处于不同发展水平和不同收入阶段的国家,由于经济社会发展特征不一致,城市化对能源强度的影响也可能不同。采用52个国家1980—2010年的数据,利用面板门限回归计量方法,以人均收入水平为门限变量,检验城市化对能源强度的非线性影响,分析表明:城市化与能源强度之间存在显著的双门限效应,在不同收入水平下两者之间的关系存在差异;人均收入水平的提高将降低能源强度,而工业化水平的提升会提高能源强度;城市化水平的提高将增加能源强度,其中,处于中间收入水平的国家的城市化对能源效率提高的负面影响最低。从我国目前的发展阶段来看,城市化对能源利用效率最大程度的负面影响还有一段"缓冲时期",应转变城市化发展模式,提高城市化质量,充分发挥城市化的集聚效应和规模经济。Due to the different characters of economic social development and countries at different development level and income level, urbanization makes different impact on energy intensity. Using data from 52 countries in 1980-2010, by panel threshold regression method, per capita income playing as threshold variable, nonlinear influence of urbanization on energy intensity is examined. It is found that there are two thresholds between urbanization and energy intensity, and the relationships between the two is different at different income level. Higher per capita income results in lower energy intensity, while higher industrialization level leads to higher energy intensity. Higher urbanization level can increase energy intensity. For those countries whose per capita income is in the middle, the negative effect of urbanization on energy efficiency is minimum. In the view of the development stage of China, there is buffer period for the negative effect of urbanization on energy efficiency. It is suggested to shift the development mode of urbanization, to promote urbanization quality, to exert agglomeration effect of urbanization and to develop scale economy.

关 键 词：城市化 能源强度 能源消费 能源效率 人均收入 人口城市化率 大城市化率 新型城市化 城市化新常态 

分 类 号：F299.1[经济管理—国民经济] F416.2F224