昆明市居民主要慢性病死亡的影响因素分析  

Influencing factors on deaths of major chronic diseases among residents in Kunming City

作　　者：李志坤[1] 张荗镕 沈岚[1] 田荣[1] 李云涛[1] 颜芳[1] 刘怡[1] 李吉[1] 

机构地区：[1]昆明市疾病预防控制中心,云南昆明650228

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2015年第11期2025-2028,共4页Modern Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的分析昆明市居民主要慢性病死亡的影响因素。方法应用死亡率差别分解法,分析2006-2013年昆明市居民死因监测资料中主要慢性病数据,计算人群死亡率变化多少是由人口老龄化的影响,又有多少是危险因素的作用。结果 2006-2013年居民主要慢性病(心脑血管疾病、恶性肿瘤、慢性阻塞肺部疾病(COPD)、糖尿病和消化系统疾病)死亡率呈上升趋势,人口老龄化和危险因素共同影响死亡率的变化,其中危险因素影响占60%。城市除COPD死亡率下降外,其他呈上升趋势,而心脑血管疾病的死亡是危险因素起主导作用,其他疾病则是由人口老龄化的作用;农村主要慢性病死亡是由人口老龄化和危险因素的促进作用呈上升趋势,其危险因素影响较大,但消化系统疾病则是由人口老龄化的影响。结论人口老龄化和危险因素对不同慢性病死亡率上升的贡献各有不同,危险因素是影响居民心脑血管疾病、糖尿病和恶性肿瘤死亡上升的主要原因。Objective To analyze the influencing factors on the deaths of the major chronic diseases among residents in Kunming City. Methods By decomposition of differences in mortality rates, we analyzed the data on the major chronic diseases from the mortality surveillance data of the residents in Kunming, 2006-2013. Also, we calculated the proportions of changes of mortality rates the population resulted from aging and risk factors, respectively. Results The mortality rates of the major chronic diseases （cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, cancers, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease （COPD）, diabetes mellitus and digestive system diseases） were rising during 2006-2013. Both the population aging and the risk factors infected the changes of the mortality rates, and the risk factors accounted for 60%. In urban areas, the mortality rates of the major chronic diseases were on rising except for COPD. The risk factors played a leading role concerning the deaths of the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, while the population aging played a leading role in the others. In rural areas, the promoting effects of the population aging and the risk factors were rising, resulting in the deaths of the major chronic diseases, and the influence of the later was larger, while the population aging had an influence on the digestive system diseases. Conclusion The contributions of the population aging and the risk factors are different concerning increasing rates of the mortality for different chronic diseases. The risk factors are the main reason of the mortality for the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, diabetes mellitus and cancers.

关 键 词：慢性病 死亡率 老龄化 危险因素 

分 类 号：R195[医药卫生—卫生统计学]