2010-2014年锦州市流感监测及时空分布特征分析  

Analysis of influenza surveillance and its spatiotemporal characteristics in Jinzhou, 2010-2014

作　　者：赵晓辉[1] 周大宇[2] 孙佩龙[2] 白梅[2] 张旭[2] 毛玲玲[3] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁医学院附属第一医院,辽宁锦州121001 [2]锦州市疾病预防控制中心,辽宁锦州121000 [3]辽宁省疾病预防控制中心,辽宁沈阳110000

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2015年第11期2062-2064,共3页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：国家重大传染病防治科技重大专项项目(2012ZX10004209-001)

摘　　要：目的对锦州市城区(街道)监测的流感样病例特征进行描述,并进行聚集性分析,为制定流感防控措施提供理论依据。方法 2010年4月-2014年3月,对锦州市的流感样病例(Influenza-Like Illness,ILI)的监测数据和病原学监测结果进行分析;并采用时空重排模型对流感样病例进行聚集性分析。结果流感监测结果显示,2010年4月-2014年3月,锦州市共检测ILI标本3 298份,分离出流感病毒136株,阳性率为4.12%,流感流行期为每年12月份-次年2月份,历年按月份所监测的流感病毒阳性率高峰值与ILI%高峰期两者趋势存在正相关(r=0.273;P=0.027);2010年4月-2014年3月期间,时空扫描分析分别发现4起、3起、2起和5起聚集性区域,最有可能聚集性区域集中在天安街道、保安街道、北街街道和站前街道。结论将流感常规监测与时空聚集性分析方法相结合,准确发现流感聚集性区域,对流感的早期预警和传播控制具有重要应用价值。Objective To analyze the characteristics and the spatiotemporal cluster of influenza-like illness （ILI） in Jinzhou City, so as to provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of flu. Methods The surveillance data and pathogen resuhs from April 2010 to March 2014 were analyzed. Space-time permutation scan statistic was adopted to analyze the cluster of ILL Results 3298 specimens were tested. 136 cases of influenza virus were identified, with the positive rate of 4.12%. The prevalent period of influenza virus was from December to February in next year. There was a positive correlation between the peak of ILI and the highest positive rate of influenza virus. In the space-time permutation scan analyses, we found four, three, two and five significant clusters separately. The most likely clusters were located in Tianan street, Banan street, North street and Station street. Conclusion It had a significant meaning to combine the influenza surveillance with space-time permutation scan statistic in disease early alert and control.

关 键 词：流感 时空分析 监测 

分 类 号：R183.3[医药卫生—流行病学]