气候暖干化背景下环渤海地区旱涝时空响应  

Drought-flood Responses to Spatial-temporal Variations in Region Around Bohai Sea

作　　者：王璐璐[1] 延军平[1] 李敏敏[1] 王鹏涛[1] 曹永旺[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,陕西西安710062

出　　处：《水土保持通报》2015年第2期279-286,共8页Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目:"部分重大自然灾害的时空对称性:结构;机理与适应对策"(41171090)

摘　　要：[目的]在全球变暖背景下,为深入认识环渤海地区区域响应特征,进而制定防灾减灾政策,提高旱涝灾害应变能力。[方法]利用环渤海地区60个气象台站1961—2012年的实测气温、降水资料,采用线性趋势法、Mann—Kendall检验以及空间插值法揭示环渤海地区气候的时空变化特征;应用Z指数旱涝等级标准和区域旱涝指标分析该区域旱涝灾害的时空响应特征。[结果](1)环渤海地区近52a气候总体呈现暖干化趋势,年平均气温显著上升,增温速率为0.25℃/10a,且于1988年前后发生增温突变;年平均气温南高北低,大部分地区呈增温趋势,且南北增温程度差异不大。(2)降水量呈减少趋势,下降速率为10.37mm/10a;降水自东南向西北递减,沿海多于内陆,差异逐渐减小;(3)1988年后,环渤海地区旱涝灾害频率明显增加,其中旱灾显著增加,涝灾略有减少;空间上旱灾比例高于涝灾,且呈现出明显的干旱趋势。[结论]环渤海地区气候对全球气候变化有所响应,尤其是旱涝灾害,表现出一定的区域特征。[Objective] Under the background of global warming, this paper focuses on the study of the regional responsive variation characteristics of climate and drought-flood around the Bohai Sea, to make out the disaster prevention and mitigation policy, and to improve the ability of drought and flood disasters strain. [Methods] On the basis of the temperature and precipitation data of 60 meteorological stations located around the Bohai Sea from 1961 to 2012, using the linear trend method, Mann--Kendall mutation test and spatial interpolation method, we attempted to reveal the spatial-temporal variations characteristics of climate; regional drought and waterlogging were graded using the Z index and then the temporal-spatial responses of them were elucidated. [Results] （1） It had experienced an apparent trend of climate warming and drying in the re- gion around the Bohai Sea. The warming rate was 0.25 ℃/10 a. In the years of 1988 around, an abrupt temperature rise occurred. The warming rate had small and insignificant difference between the north and south of that region although the temperature between the two sub-regions was significantly different. （2） Precipitation had witnessed a decreasing trend with a rate of 10.37 ram/10 a. From southeast to northwest, from coastal regions to inlands, precipitation decreased spatially while differences of the temporal decreasing rate among the sub-regions was small. （3） After 1988, frequency of drought-flood disasters showed an apparent increasing trend around Bohai Sea. Drought occurred more frequently than flooding and more sub-regions underwent drought over than waterlogging around the Bohai Sea. Overall, the region had an obvious trend of drought. [Conclusion]The climate in the region around the Bohai Sea had responded to global climate change. Especially, drought and flood disasters showed a regional style.

关 键 词：气候变化 旱涝 时空特征 Z指数 环渤海地区 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]