“伊斯兰国”最新发展趋势探析  

An Analysis of the Latest Developing Trend of the “Islamic State”

作　　者：周鑫宇[1,2,3] 石江[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京外国语大学 [2]北京外国语大学公共外交研究中心 [3]北京外国语大学中国文化走出去协同创新中心

出　　处：《现代国际关系》2015年第5期41-47,64,共7页

摘　　要："伊斯兰国"经过多个阶段的快速演变,呈现出准政权组织的新特征。在多种因素作用下,"伊斯兰国"可能已经达到其发展顶峰,而在短时期内难以被完全消灭。本文分析了导致"伊斯兰国"挫退和变化的近期因素,包括伊拉克政府力量巩固、美国打击力度加大、地区国家合作加强等;也分析了支持"伊斯兰国"未来长期存在和活跃的要素,包括相关地区的社会问题、教派联合的脆弱性、中东的新权力格局、美国全球战略考虑与国内政治的冲击等。结合变与不变的因素,"伊斯兰国"可能进入新的发展阶段,既对当前特征有所继承,又在发展方向、组织形态等方面进一步演化。After several stages of rapid development,the 'Islamic State'is presenting some new characteristics of a quasi- governmental organization. Being affected by various factors,the IS may have reached its peak,and it is hard to be eliminated completely in a short period of time. This article analyzes those main factors that have caused the retreat and change of the IS,including the consolidation of the Iraqi government,the increasing U. S. striking,and the enhanced cooperation among the various countries in the region. The article also analyzes those factors supporting the long existence and activities of the IS,including the serious social problems in the region,the fragile of the cooperation between the various sects,the new power configuration in the Middle East,U. S. 'global strategic consideration and the influence of domestic politics,etc. According to the variant and static factors,the IS may enter a new stage of development. It is likely to inherit some of its current characteristics and experience new evolution in its organization form and the orientation in the future.

关 键 词：“伊斯兰国” 反恐 中东局势 美国外交 伊拉克问题 

分 类 号：D815.4[政治法律—国际关系]