气象生态信息经济效益集合的概率矩阵评估原理与应用  

A Probability-matrix Evaluation Method of Economic Benefits of Meteorological-ecology Information——Principle and Application

作　　者：孙立德 高鹏 

机构地区：[1]辽宁省喀左县气象局,辽宁喀左122300

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2015年第13期244-248,共5页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家科技部农业科技成果转化资金项目"北方日光温室精细化农用天气预报研究推广"(2013GB24160623);国家公益行业(气象)科研专项"东北地区设施农业生产专业天气预报技术研究"(GYHY201206024)

摘　　要：为了客观定量地评估气象预报(以大风为例)为农业生态(以日光温室为例)服务的经济效益。依气象产值和实际预报信息,笔者构建了信息—实况矩阵,并将信息—实况积事件、信息—实况概率的通用概率—集合用公式表达出来。给出了评价的通用方法,说明以气象产量概念为基础的产值评估原理。以大风预报为日光温室(大棚)服务的实际观测数据为信息源,经由计算得出如下结果:喀左县全县的总经济效益为6304×104元/a;效益损失比为65.6:1。理论解析和计算实例表明:本研究提出的原理和方法,可用于全县生态经济效益评估的相关领域。This paper aims to make an objective and quantitative assessment of the economic benefits ofmeteorological forecasts in serving agro-ecology.The author built an information-state matrix,and providedthe general mathematical formulae for the probability sets of the product-events of information-stateprobabilities.The result showed that the general methods were applicable to such an assessment.The authorsdescribed the basic principles on the concept of meteorological yields.Those practical observation data inKazuo of 1999-2013 were taken as information resource to forecast fresh gale and serve sun-light greenhousesin Kazuo,and the authors obtained the following computed results：（1） the total economic benefit in Kazuo was 6304×10^4yuan/a;（2） the benefit-cost ratio was 65.6：1.From the above research,the author drew conclusionthat both principles and methods mentioned above might be applied to the relevant fields of evaluations onmeteorological-ecology economic benefits.

关 键 词：气象生态经济效益 日光温室 集合 预报信息 

分 类 号：S165.3[农业科学—农业气象学]