设计洪水地区组成的区间估计方法研究  

Interval estimation method for design flood region composition

作　　者：刘章君[1] 郭生练[1] 李天元 胡瑶[1] 李立平[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室、水资源安全保障湖北省协同创新中心,湖北武汉430072 [2]长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司,湖北武汉430010

出　　处：《水利学报》2015年第5期543-550,共8页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目(51190094)

摘　　要：目前设计洪水地区组成计算方法都是以特定的地区组成情况来概括所有可能出现各种洪水组合,缺乏理论基础,计算结果差异较大,误差很难评估。本文采用各分区洪水的联合概率密度函数值度量地区组成发生的相对可能性,基于Copula函数推导得到分区洪水归一化的概率密度函数,提出了设计洪水地区组成的区间估计方法。清江流域隔河岩水库的应用实例表明:典型年法的计算结果不在95%置信区间内;同频率地区组成法位于该置信区间内,具有一定的合理性。所提方法具有较强的统计理论基础,不仅可以计算地区组成的各种点估计值,而且能够对估计的不确定性进行定量评价。The current methods for design flood region composition use some specific situations to summa- rize all possible combination of the flood at each sub-watershed, which leads to the results lacking in theo- retical basis, showing huge difference and hard to assess the errors. In this study, the joint probability den- sity function value of flood volume at each sub-watershed was adopted to measure its occurrence likelihood. Based on Copula function the normalized probability density function of flood volume at sub-watershed was derived. A new methodology for interval estimation of design flood region composition was proposed. The Ge- heyan reservoir located at Qingjiang basin was selected as a case study. It is demonstrated that the results of typical year method are not within the range of peak discharges estimated by the 95 % confidence intervals, and the results of equivalent frequency regional composition method are within those intervals which indicates that it has some rationality. The proposed method has strong statistical basis and can not only give both point and interval estimates of design flood region composition, but also evaluate the uncertainty of estimate quantitatively, which will provide a new approach for design flood region composition analysis and calculation.

关 键 词：设计洪水 地区组成 区间估计 COPULA函数 联合概率密度 清江流域 

分 类 号：TV122.3[水利工程—水文学及水资源]